Johnson Outdoors Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| JOUT Stock | USD 44.90 0.82 1.79% |
Johnson Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Johnson Outdoors' share price is at 54. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Johnson Outdoors, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.731 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.45) | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.05 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.39 | Wall Street Target Price 52 |
Using Johnson Outdoors hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Johnson Outdoors from the perspective of Johnson Outdoors response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Johnson Relative Strength Index
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Johnson Outdoors on the next trading day is expected to be 44.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68 and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.35.Johnson Outdoors Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Johnson Outdoors' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Johnson. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Johnson can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Johnson Outdoors. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Johnson Outdoors' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Johnson Outdoors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Johnson Outdoors on the next trading day is expected to be 44.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68 and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.35. Johnson Outdoors after-hype prediction price | USD 45.66 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Johnson Outdoors to cross-verify your projections. Johnson Outdoors Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Johnson price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Johnson using various technical indicators. When you analyze Johnson charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Johnson Outdoors Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Johnson Outdoors on the next trading day is expected to be 44.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68, mean absolute percentage error of 0.80, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Johnson Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Johnson Outdoors' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Johnson Outdoors Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Johnson Outdoors | Johnson Outdoors Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Johnson Outdoors Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Johnson Outdoors' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Johnson Outdoors' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.88 and 46.92, respectively. We have considered Johnson Outdoors' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Johnson Outdoors stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Johnson Outdoors stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1131 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6839 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0162 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 40.3496 |
Predictive Modules for Johnson Outdoors
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Johnson Outdoors. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Johnson Outdoors' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Johnson Outdoors After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Johnson Outdoors at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Johnson Outdoors or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Johnson Outdoors, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Johnson Outdoors Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Johnson Outdoors' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Johnson Outdoors' historical news coverage. Johnson Outdoors' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 43.64 and 47.68, respectively. We have considered Johnson Outdoors' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Johnson Outdoors is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Johnson Outdoors is based on 3 months time horizon.
Johnson Outdoors Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Johnson Outdoors is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Johnson Outdoors backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Johnson Outdoors, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 2.02 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
44.90 | 45.66 | 0.13 |
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Johnson Outdoors Hype Timeline
Johnson Outdoors is currently traded for 44.90. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.17, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Johnson is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 45.66. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.13%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Johnson Outdoors is about 8416.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 44.90. About 88.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.14. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Johnson Outdoors has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.14. The entity recorded a loss per share of 3.35. The firm last dividend was issued on the 8th of January 2026. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Johnson Outdoors to cross-verify your projections.Johnson Outdoors Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Johnson Outdoors' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Johnson Outdoors' future price movements. Getting to know how Johnson Outdoors' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Johnson Outdoors may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PACK | Ranpak Holdings Corp | 0.12 | 7 per month | 4.13 | 0.01 | 5.25 | (4.59) | 22.28 | |
| HYLN | Hyliion Holdings Corp | (0.08) | 8 per month | 4.66 | 0.03 | 6.19 | (7.17) | 20.27 | |
| KFS | Kingsway Financial Services | (0.33) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.13 | (4.33) | 20.86 | |
| HLLY | Holley Inc | (0.07) | 10 per month | 1.85 | 0.11 | 5.51 | (3.70) | 38.65 | |
| MNRO | Monro Muffler Brake | 0.68 | 7 per month | 3.40 | 0.04 | 5.20 | (3.62) | 20.48 | |
| VFS | VinFast Auto Ltd | (0.03) | 10 per month | 2.24 | 0.01 | 3.29 | (3.66) | 15.20 | |
| CAL | Caleres | 0.21 | 6 per month | 3.35 | 0.01 | 8.13 | (5.59) | 19.93 | |
| INVZ | Innoviz Technologies | (0.04) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 6.14 | (7.48) | 34.74 | |
| NATH | Nathans Famous | (0.17) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.17 | (3.41) | 9.78 | |
| GCO | Genesco | (0.05) | 16 per month | 5.85 | 0.04 | 8.14 | (4.04) | 39.13 |
Other Forecasting Options for Johnson Outdoors
For every potential investor in Johnson, whether a beginner or expert, Johnson Outdoors' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Johnson Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Johnson. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Johnson Outdoors' price trends.Johnson Outdoors Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Johnson Outdoors stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Johnson Outdoors could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Johnson Outdoors by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Johnson Outdoors Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Johnson Outdoors stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Johnson Outdoors shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Johnson Outdoors stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Johnson Outdoors entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Johnson Outdoors Risk Indicators
The analysis of Johnson Outdoors' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Johnson Outdoors' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting johnson stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.51 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.99 | |||
| Variance | 3.97 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.62 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.36 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.84) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Johnson Outdoors
The number of cover stories for Johnson Outdoors depends on current market conditions and Johnson Outdoors' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Johnson Outdoors is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Johnson Outdoors' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Johnson Outdoors Short Properties
Johnson Outdoors' future price predictability will typically decrease when Johnson Outdoors' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Johnson Outdoors often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Johnson Outdoors' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Johnson Outdoors' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 176.4 M |
Additional Tools for Johnson Stock Analysis
When running Johnson Outdoors' price analysis, check to measure Johnson Outdoors' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Johnson Outdoors is operating at the current time. Most of Johnson Outdoors' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Johnson Outdoors' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Johnson Outdoors' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Johnson Outdoors to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.