Johnson Outdoors Stock Price Prediction
| JOUT Stock | USD 33.37 0.86 2.65% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
62
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.89) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.09) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.35) | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.44 | Wall Street Target Price 52 |
Using Johnson Outdoors hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Johnson Outdoors from the perspective of Johnson Outdoors response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Johnson Outdoors to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Johnson because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Johnson Outdoors after-hype prediction price | USD 33.29 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Johnson |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Johnson Outdoors' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Johnson Outdoors After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Johnson Outdoors at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Johnson Outdoors or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Johnson Outdoors, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Johnson Outdoors Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Johnson Outdoors' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Johnson Outdoors' historical news coverage. Johnson Outdoors' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 31.63 and 34.95, respectively. We have considered Johnson Outdoors' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Johnson Outdoors is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Johnson Outdoors is based on 3 months time horizon.
Johnson Outdoors Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Johnson Outdoors is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Johnson Outdoors backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Johnson Outdoors, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 1.63 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 6 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
33.37 | 33.29 | 0.24 |
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Johnson Outdoors Hype Timeline
Johnson Outdoors is currently traded for 33.37. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Johnson is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 33.29. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.24%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Johnson Outdoors is about 587.87%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 33.39. About 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.69. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Johnson Outdoors has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.66. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.83. The firm last dividend was issued on the 9th of October 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Johnson Outdoors Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Johnson Outdoors Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Johnson Outdoors' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Johnson Outdoors' future price movements. Getting to know how Johnson Outdoors' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Johnson Outdoors may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VSTO | Vista Outdoor | 0.16 | 10 per month | 0.52 | 0.05 | 1.86 | (1.42) | 11.03 | |
| CLAR | Clarus Corp | 0.33 | 9 per month | 2.74 | (0.05) | 4.24 | (4.77) | 12.96 | |
| ESCA | Escalade Incorporated | (0.08) | 6 per month | 3.16 | 0.05 | 5.62 | (4.79) | 17.10 | |
| JAKK | JAKKS Pacific | 0.16 | 8 per month | 2.08 | 0.07 | 3.97 | (3.44) | 20.03 | |
| FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | (0.11) | 6 per month | 2.02 | (0.02) | 3.54 | (3.85) | 9.00 | |
| SIX | Six Flags Entertainment | 1.14 | 8 per month | 1.59 | 0.12 | 5.80 | (3.33) | 10.72 | |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp | 1.81 | 7 per month | 1.36 | 0.01 | 2.22 | (2.74) | 14.90 | |
| MAT | Mattel Inc | (0.35) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.93 | (2.31) | 11.42 | |
| OSW | OneSpaWorld Holdings | 0.01 | 11 per month | 1.11 | 0.16 | 3.27 | (2.29) | 8.13 | |
| AOUT | American Outdoor Brands | (0.02) | 11 per month | 2.42 | 0.03 | 3.81 | (4.77) | 15.12 | |
| LEAT | Leatt Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.44 | (0.01) | 7.08 | (5.20) | 24.85 |
Johnson Outdoors Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Johnson price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Johnson using various technical indicators. When you analyze Johnson charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Johnson Outdoors Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Johnson Outdoors stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Johnson Outdoors, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Johnson Outdoors based on analysis of Johnson Outdoors hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Johnson Outdoors's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Johnson Outdoors's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0228 | 0.0235 | 0.0246 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.83 | 0.69 | 0.48 |
Story Coverage note for Johnson Outdoors
The number of cover stories for Johnson Outdoors depends on current market conditions and Johnson Outdoors' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Johnson Outdoors is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Johnson Outdoors' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Johnson Outdoors Short Properties
Johnson Outdoors' future price predictability will typically decrease when Johnson Outdoors' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Johnson Outdoors often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Johnson Outdoors' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Johnson Outdoors' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 138.6 M |
Additional Tools for Johnson Stock Analysis
When running Johnson Outdoors' price analysis, check to measure Johnson Outdoors' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Johnson Outdoors is operating at the current time. Most of Johnson Outdoors' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Johnson Outdoors' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Johnson Outdoors' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Johnson Outdoors to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.