Kodiak Gas Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

KGS Stock   37.40  0.03  0.08%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Kodiak Gas Services on the next trading day is expected to be 36.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.76 and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.63. Kodiak Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Kodiak Gas' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Kodiak Gas' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Kodiak Gas and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Kodiak Gas' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Kodiak Gas Services, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Kodiak Gas' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
6.167
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.5816
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.9872
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.3474
Wall Street Target Price
43.1818
Using Kodiak Gas hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Kodiak Gas Services from the perspective of Kodiak Gas response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Kodiak Gas using Kodiak Gas' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Kodiak using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Kodiak Gas' stock price.

Kodiak Gas Short Interest

An investor who is long Kodiak Gas may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Kodiak Gas and may potentially protect profits, hedge Kodiak Gas with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
34.7427
Short Percent
0.0916
Short Ratio
2.63
Shares Short Prior Month
4.6 M
50 Day MA
35.5438

Kodiak Gas Services Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Kodiak Gas' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Kodiak. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Kodiak can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Kodiak Gas Services. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Kodiak Gas' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Kodiak Gas.

Kodiak Gas Implied Volatility

    
  0.42  
Kodiak Gas' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Kodiak Gas Services stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Kodiak Gas' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Kodiak Gas stock will not fluctuate a lot when Kodiak Gas' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Kodiak Gas Services on the next trading day is expected to be 36.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.76 and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.63.

Kodiak Gas after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 37.4  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kodiak Gas to cross-verify your projections.
Receivables Turnover is likely to gain to 7.39 in 2026, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 7.68 in 2026. . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to gain to about 56.8 M in 2026, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 83.3 M in 2026.

Open Interest Against 2026-02-20 Kodiak Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Kodiak Gas' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Kodiak Gas' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Kodiak Gas stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Kodiak Gas' open interest, investors have to compare it to Kodiak Gas' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Kodiak Gas is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Kodiak. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Kodiak Gas Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Kodiak price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Kodiak using various technical indicators. When you analyze Kodiak charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Kodiak Gas' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2010-12-31
Previous Quarter
4.3 M
Current Value
4.1 M
Quarterly Volatility
8.7 M
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Kodiak Gas is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Kodiak Gas Services value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Kodiak Gas Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Kodiak Gas Services on the next trading day is expected to be 36.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.76, mean absolute percentage error of 0.83, and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.63.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kodiak Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kodiak Gas' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Kodiak Gas Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Kodiak GasKodiak Gas Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Kodiak Gas Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Kodiak Gas' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kodiak Gas' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34.54 and 38.44, respectively. We have considered Kodiak Gas' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
37.40
36.49
Expected Value
38.44
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kodiak Gas stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kodiak Gas stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.9274
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.7644
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0216
SAESum of the absolute errors46.631
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Kodiak Gas Services. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Kodiak Gas. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Kodiak Gas

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kodiak Gas Services. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
35.4337.4039.37
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
34.4536.4238.39
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
34.7536.4938.23
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
39.3043.1847.93
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Kodiak Gas. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Kodiak Gas' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Kodiak Gas' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Kodiak Gas Services.

Other Forecasting Options for Kodiak Gas

For every potential investor in Kodiak, whether a beginner or expert, Kodiak Gas' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kodiak Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kodiak. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kodiak Gas' price trends.

Kodiak Gas Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kodiak Gas stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kodiak Gas could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kodiak Gas by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Kodiak Gas Services Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Kodiak Gas' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Kodiak Gas' current price.

Kodiak Gas Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kodiak Gas stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kodiak Gas shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kodiak Gas stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Kodiak Gas Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Kodiak Gas Risk Indicators

The analysis of Kodiak Gas' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kodiak Gas' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kodiak stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Additional Tools for Kodiak Stock Analysis

When running Kodiak Gas' price analysis, check to measure Kodiak Gas' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kodiak Gas is operating at the current time. Most of Kodiak Gas' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kodiak Gas' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kodiak Gas' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kodiak Gas to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.