Kodiak Gas Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| KGS Stock | 41.09 0.59 1.46% |
Kodiak Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Kodiak Gas' stock price is slightly above 63. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Kodiak, making its price go up or down. Momentum 63
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 6.167 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.5816 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.8227 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.3422 | Wall Street Target Price 44.1818 |
Using Kodiak Gas hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Kodiak Gas Services from the perspective of Kodiak Gas response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Kodiak Gas using Kodiak Gas' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Kodiak using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Kodiak Gas' stock price.
Kodiak Gas Short Interest
An investor who is long Kodiak Gas may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Kodiak Gas and may potentially protect profits, hedge Kodiak Gas with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 34.8595 | Short Percent 0.0821 | Short Ratio 3.16 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.6 M | 50 Day MA 36.3688 |
Kodiak Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kodiak Gas Services on the next trading day is expected to be 41.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.45.Kodiak Gas Services Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Kodiak Gas' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Kodiak. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Kodiak can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Kodiak Gas Services. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Kodiak Gas' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Kodiak Gas.
Kodiak Gas Implied Volatility | 0.52 |
Kodiak Gas' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Kodiak Gas Services stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Kodiak Gas' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Kodiak Gas stock will not fluctuate a lot when Kodiak Gas' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kodiak Gas Services on the next trading day is expected to be 41.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.45. Kodiak Gas after-hype prediction price | USD 40.73 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kodiak Gas to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Kodiak contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Kodiak Gas Services will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0325% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Kodiak Gas trading at USD 41.09, that is roughly USD 0.0134 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Kodiak Gas' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Kodiak Gas Services options at the current volatility level of 0.52%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Kodiak Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Kodiak Gas' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Kodiak Gas' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Kodiak Gas stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Kodiak Gas' open interest, investors have to compare it to Kodiak Gas' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Kodiak Gas is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Kodiak. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Kodiak Gas Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Kodiak price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Kodiak using various technical indicators. When you analyze Kodiak charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Kodiak Gas Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kodiak Gas Services on the next trading day is expected to be 41.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52, mean absolute percentage error of 0.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.45.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kodiak Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kodiak Gas' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Kodiak Gas Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Kodiak Gas | Kodiak Gas Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Kodiak Gas Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Kodiak Gas' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kodiak Gas' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 39.21 and 42.97, respectively. We have considered Kodiak Gas' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kodiak Gas stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kodiak Gas stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.5268 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0725 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5242 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0145 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.45 |
Predictive Modules for Kodiak Gas
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kodiak Gas Services. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Kodiak Gas After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Kodiak Gas at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Kodiak Gas or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Kodiak Gas, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Kodiak Gas Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Kodiak Gas' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Kodiak Gas' historical news coverage. Kodiak Gas' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 38.85 and 42.61, respectively. We have considered Kodiak Gas' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Kodiak Gas is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Kodiak Gas Services is based on 3 months time horizon.
Kodiak Gas Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Kodiak Gas is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Kodiak Gas backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Kodiak Gas, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 1.88 | 0.36 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
41.09 | 40.73 | 0.88 |
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Kodiak Gas Hype Timeline
On the 30th of January Kodiak Gas Services is traded for 41.09. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.36, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Kodiak is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 40.73. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 105.62%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.88%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Kodiak Gas is about 6482.76%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 41.08. About 90.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Kodiak Gas was now reported as 14.41. The company last dividend was issued on the 3rd of November 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kodiak Gas to cross-verify your projections.Kodiak Gas Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Kodiak Gas' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Kodiak Gas' future price movements. Getting to know how Kodiak Gas' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Kodiak Gas may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| USAC | USA Compression Partners | 0.08 | 9 per month | 1.33 | 0.11 | 3.03 | (2.55) | 10.45 | |
| WHD | Cactus Inc | 1.25 | 8 per month | 1.37 | 0.23 | 3.59 | (2.92) | 11.21 | |
| LBRT | Liberty Oilfield Services | 0.03 | 12 per month | 3.01 | 0.18 | 5.41 | (6.06) | 18.46 | |
| STNG | Scorpio Tankers | (0.25) | 8 per month | 1.67 | 0.02 | 4.48 | (2.67) | 12.30 | |
| SEI | Solaris Energy Infrastructure | (1.56) | 12 per month | 4.19 | 0.04 | 5.95 | (5.71) | 21.92 | |
| TDW | Tidewater | (0.19) | 8 per month | 2.58 | 0.11 | 5.06 | (5.04) | 15.89 | |
| ARLP | Alliance Resource Partners | (0.25) | 7 per month | 0.98 | 0.05 | 1.93 | (1.99) | 7.01 | |
| OII | Oceaneering International | 0.27 | 10 per month | 1.90 | 0.14 | 5.31 | (3.35) | 12.51 | |
| PAGP | Plains GP Holdings | 0.29 | 10 per month | 0.35 | 0.27 | 1.57 | (1.16) | 3.89 | |
| RIG | Transocean | 0.04 | 10 per month | 2.12 | 0.13 | 3.34 | (3.37) | 12.06 |
Other Forecasting Options for Kodiak Gas
For every potential investor in Kodiak, whether a beginner or expert, Kodiak Gas' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kodiak Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kodiak. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kodiak Gas' price trends.Kodiak Gas Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kodiak Gas stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kodiak Gas could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kodiak Gas by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Kodiak Gas Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kodiak Gas stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kodiak Gas shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kodiak Gas stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Kodiak Gas Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Kodiak Gas Risk Indicators
The analysis of Kodiak Gas' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kodiak Gas' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kodiak stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.95 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.86 | |||
| Variance | 3.47 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.59 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.8 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.29) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Kodiak Gas
The number of cover stories for Kodiak Gas depends on current market conditions and Kodiak Gas' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Kodiak Gas is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Kodiak Gas' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Kodiak Gas Short Properties
Kodiak Gas' future price predictability will typically decrease when Kodiak Gas' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Kodiak Gas Services often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Kodiak Gas' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kodiak Gas' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 85.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.8 M |
Additional Tools for Kodiak Stock Analysis
When running Kodiak Gas' price analysis, check to measure Kodiak Gas' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kodiak Gas is operating at the current time. Most of Kodiak Gas' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kodiak Gas' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kodiak Gas' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kodiak Gas to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.