CarMax Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| KMX Stock | USD 44.54 0.99 2.17% |
CarMax Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of RSI of CarMax's share price is at 52. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling CarMax, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.47) | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.6871 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.6126 | Wall Street Target Price 39 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.316 |
Using CarMax hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CarMax Inc from the perspective of CarMax response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards CarMax using CarMax's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards CarMax using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of CarMax's stock price.
CarMax Short Interest
An investor who is long CarMax may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about CarMax and may potentially protect profits, hedge CarMax with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 53.6899 | Short Percent 0.1352 | Short Ratio 3.64 | Shares Short Prior Month 13.2 M | 50 Day MA 41.0098 |
CarMax Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of CarMax Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 47.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.68.CarMax Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to CarMax's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in CarMax. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding CarMax can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around CarMax Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of CarMax's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about CarMax.
CarMax Implied Volatility | 0.62 |
CarMax's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of CarMax Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if CarMax's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that CarMax stock will not fluctuate a lot when CarMax's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of CarMax Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 47.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.68. CarMax after-hype prediction price | USD 44.71 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CarMax to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current CarMax contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that CarMax Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0388% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With CarMax trading at USD 44.54, that is roughly USD 0.0173 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating CarMax's daily price movement you should consider acquiring CarMax Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.62%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 CarMax Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast CarMax's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in CarMax's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for CarMax stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current CarMax's open interest, investors have to compare it to CarMax's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of CarMax is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in CarMax. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
CarMax Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CarMax price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CarMax using various technical indicators. When you analyze CarMax charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CarMax Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of CarMax Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 47.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.86, mean absolute percentage error of 5.50, and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.68.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CarMax Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CarMax's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CarMax Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CarMax | CarMax Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
CarMax Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CarMax's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CarMax's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 43.28 and 51.30, respectively. We have considered CarMax's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CarMax stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CarMax stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.8155 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.8636 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0465 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 113.6769 |
Predictive Modules for CarMax
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CarMax Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CarMax After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CarMax at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CarMax or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CarMax, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CarMax Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CarMax's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CarMax's historical news coverage. CarMax's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 40.70 and 48.72, respectively. We have considered CarMax's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CarMax is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CarMax Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
CarMax Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CarMax is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CarMax backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CarMax, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 4.01 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 7 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
44.54 | 44.71 | 0.38 |
|
CarMax Hype Timeline
On the 1st of February CarMax Inc is traded for 44.54. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.17, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. CarMax is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 44.71 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.38%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.21%. The volatility of related hype on CarMax is about 1407.02%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 44.48. The company reported the last year's revenue of 28.21 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 500.56 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 3.45 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CarMax to cross-verify your projections.CarMax Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CarMax's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CarMax's future price movements. Getting to know how CarMax's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CarMax may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AN | AutoNation | 1.40 | 22 per month | 1.45 | 0.03 | 3.06 | (2.18) | 8.76 | |
| GPI | Group 1 Automotive | (6.44) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.58 | (2.66) | 11.48 | |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings | 3.05 | 11 per month | 0.94 | 0.23 | 3.31 | (2.09) | 6.81 | |
| LEA | Lear Corporation | (1.82) | 10 per month | 1.42 | 0.11 | 3.50 | (2.89) | 8.69 | |
| LAD | Lithia Motors | 0.41 | 20 per month | 1.61 | (0.01) | 3.28 | (2.97) | 9.83 | |
| HRB | HR Block | 1.06 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 1.90 | (3.51) | 7.69 | |
| ABG | Asbury Automotive Group | 0.56 | 7 per month | 1.74 | (0.01) | 3.65 | (2.74) | 10.40 | |
| MAT | Mattel Inc | (0.12) | 8 per month | 1.75 | 0.06 | 3.56 | (3.21) | 8.19 | |
| BYD | Boyd Gaming | (0.60) | 9 per month | 1.18 | 0.04 | 2.56 | (1.98) | 6.83 | |
| LNW | Light Wonder | (0.35) | 4 per month | 1.62 | 0.09 | 3.55 | (2.94) | 14.31 |
Other Forecasting Options for CarMax
For every potential investor in CarMax, whether a beginner or expert, CarMax's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CarMax Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CarMax. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CarMax's price trends.CarMax Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CarMax stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CarMax could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CarMax by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CarMax Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CarMax stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CarMax shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CarMax stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CarMax Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
CarMax Risk Indicators
The analysis of CarMax's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CarMax's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting carmax stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.94 | |||
| Variance | 15.52 | |||
| Downside Variance | 27.54 | |||
| Semi Variance | 26.48 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.12) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CarMax
The number of cover stories for CarMax depends on current market conditions and CarMax's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CarMax is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CarMax's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
CarMax Short Properties
CarMax's future price predictability will typically decrease when CarMax's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CarMax Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CarMax's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CarMax's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 156.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 247 M |
Additional Tools for CarMax Stock Analysis
When running CarMax's price analysis, check to measure CarMax's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CarMax is operating at the current time. Most of CarMax's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CarMax's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CarMax's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CarMax to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.