Karat Packaging Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| KRT Stock | USD 23.98 0.20 0.83% |
Karat Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength momentum indicator of Karat Packaging's share price is at 51. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Karat Packaging, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.20) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.28 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.55 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.67 | Wall Street Target Price 28.5 |
Using Karat Packaging hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Karat Packaging from the perspective of Karat Packaging response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Karat Relative Strength Index
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Karat Packaging on the next trading day is expected to be 24.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.81.Karat Packaging Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Karat Packaging's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Karat. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Karat can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Karat Packaging. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Karat Packaging's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Karat Packaging.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Karat Packaging on the next trading day is expected to be 24.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.81. Karat Packaging after-hype prediction price | USD 24.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Karat Packaging to cross-verify your projections. Karat Packaging Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Karat price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Karat using various technical indicators. When you analyze Karat charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Karat Packaging Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Karat Packaging on the next trading day is expected to be 24.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51, mean absolute percentage error of 0.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.81.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Karat Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Karat Packaging's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Karat Packaging Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Karat Packaging | Karat Packaging Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Karat Packaging Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Karat Packaging's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Karat Packaging's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.27 and 26.38, respectively. We have considered Karat Packaging's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Karat Packaging stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Karat Packaging stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.1441 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5051 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0221 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 30.8087 |
Predictive Modules for Karat Packaging
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Karat Packaging. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Karat Packaging After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Karat Packaging at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Karat Packaging or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Karat Packaging, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Karat Packaging Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Karat Packaging's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Karat Packaging's historical news coverage. Karat Packaging's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.15 and 26.25, respectively. We have considered Karat Packaging's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Karat Packaging is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Karat Packaging is based on 3 months time horizon.
Karat Packaging Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Karat Packaging is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Karat Packaging backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Karat Packaging, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 2.05 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 7 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
23.98 | 24.20 | 0.08 |
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Karat Packaging Hype Timeline
On the 28th of January Karat Packaging is traded for 23.98. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Karat is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 24.2 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Karat Packaging is about 2091.84%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 23.97. The company reported the last year's revenue of 422.63 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 30.82 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 172.61 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Karat Packaging to cross-verify your projections.Karat Packaging Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Karat Packaging's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Karat Packaging's future price movements. Getting to know how Karat Packaging's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Karat Packaging may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PACK | Ranpak Holdings Corp | 0.12 | 7 per month | 4.13 | 0.01 | 5.25 | (4.59) | 22.28 | |
| MLR | Miller Industries | (0.25) | 10 per month | 1.84 | (0.03) | 2.66 | (2.49) | 7.96 | |
| NATH | Nathans Famous | (0.17) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.17 | (3.41) | 9.78 | |
| PTLO | Portillos | (0.04) | 10 per month | 2.59 | (0.02) | 5.19 | (4.25) | 14.89 | |
| CAL | Caleres | (0.79) | 9 per month | 3.35 | 0.01 | 8.13 | (5.59) | 19.93 | |
| INVZ | Innoviz Technologies | (0.04) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 6.14 | (7.48) | 34.74 | |
| VENU | Venu Holding | 0.15 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 7.95 | (9.64) | 28.28 | |
| ZKH | ZKH Group Limited | 0.05 | 6 per month | 2.85 | 0.05 | 6.38 | (3.63) | 25.66 | |
| BALY | Ballys Corp | (0.04) | 9 per month | 3.66 | 0.04 | 7.22 | (5.51) | 23.67 | |
| MYE | Myers Industries | 0.03 | 7 per month | 0.88 | 0.16 | 2.81 | (1.75) | 7.31 |
Other Forecasting Options for Karat Packaging
For every potential investor in Karat, whether a beginner or expert, Karat Packaging's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Karat Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Karat. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Karat Packaging's price trends.Karat Packaging Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Karat Packaging stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Karat Packaging could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Karat Packaging by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Karat Packaging Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Karat Packaging stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Karat Packaging shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Karat Packaging stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Karat Packaging entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 23.98 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 23.98 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.10) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.20) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 51.9 |
Karat Packaging Risk Indicators
The analysis of Karat Packaging's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Karat Packaging's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting karat stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.99 | |||
| Variance | 3.98 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Karat Packaging
The number of cover stories for Karat Packaging depends on current market conditions and Karat Packaging's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Karat Packaging is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Karat Packaging's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Karat Packaging Short Properties
Karat Packaging's future price predictability will typically decrease when Karat Packaging's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Karat Packaging often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Karat Packaging's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Karat Packaging's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 20.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 59.9 M |
Additional Tools for Karat Stock Analysis
When running Karat Packaging's price analysis, check to measure Karat Packaging's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Karat Packaging is operating at the current time. Most of Karat Packaging's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Karat Packaging's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Karat Packaging's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Karat Packaging to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.