Krystal Biotech Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| KRYS Stock | USD 281.53 7.60 2.63% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Krystal Biotech on the next trading day is expected to be 293.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.62 and the sum of the absolute errors of 348.20. Krystal Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the rsi of Krystal Biotech's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.923 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.2466 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.86 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.444 | Wall Street Target Price 276.6 |
Using Krystal Biotech hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Krystal Biotech from the perspective of Krystal Biotech response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Krystal Biotech using Krystal Biotech's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Krystal using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Krystal Biotech's stock price.
Krystal Biotech Short Interest
An investor who is long Krystal Biotech may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Krystal Biotech and may potentially protect profits, hedge Krystal Biotech with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 175.5206 | Short Percent 0.1547 | Short Ratio 8.81 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.7 M | 50 Day MA 236.875 |
Krystal Biotech Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Krystal Biotech's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Krystal. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Krystal can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Krystal Biotech. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Krystal Biotech Implied Volatility | 0.45 |
Krystal Biotech's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Krystal Biotech stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Krystal Biotech's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Krystal Biotech stock will not fluctuate a lot when Krystal Biotech's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Krystal Biotech on the next trading day is expected to be 293.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.62 and the sum of the absolute errors of 348.20. Krystal Biotech after-hype prediction price | USD 281.53 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Krystal Biotech to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Krystal contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Krystal Biotech will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0281% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Krystal Biotech trading at USD 281.53, that is roughly USD 0.0792 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Krystal Biotech's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Krystal Biotech options at the current volatility level of 0.45%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Krystal Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Krystal Biotech's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Krystal Biotech's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Krystal Biotech stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Krystal Biotech's open interest, investors have to compare it to Krystal Biotech's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Krystal Biotech is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Krystal. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Krystal Biotech Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Krystal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Krystal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Krystal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Krystal Biotech's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2016-12-31 | Previous Quarter 353.8 M | Current Value 392.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 129.6 M |
Krystal Biotech Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Krystal Biotech on the next trading day is expected to be 293.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.62, mean absolute percentage error of 51.69, and the sum of the absolute errors of 348.20.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Krystal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Krystal Biotech's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Krystal Biotech Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Krystal Biotech | Krystal Biotech Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Krystal Biotech Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Krystal Biotech's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Krystal Biotech's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 291.80 and 296.19, respectively. We have considered Krystal Biotech's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Krystal Biotech stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Krystal Biotech stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.8936 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.6162 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0233 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 348.2048 |
Predictive Modules for Krystal Biotech
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Krystal Biotech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Krystal Biotech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Krystal Biotech After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Krystal Biotech at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Krystal Biotech or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Krystal Biotech, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Krystal Biotech Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Krystal Biotech's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Krystal Biotech's historical news coverage. Krystal Biotech's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 279.34 and 283.72, respectively. We have considered Krystal Biotech's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Krystal Biotech is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Krystal Biotech is based on 3 months time horizon.
Krystal Biotech Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Krystal Biotech is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Krystal Biotech backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Krystal Biotech, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.67 | 2.19 | 0.90 | 0.15 | 20 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 20 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
281.53 | 281.53 | 0.00 |
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Krystal Biotech Hype Timeline
Krystal Biotech is now traded for 281.53. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.9, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.15. Krystal is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 163.43%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.67%. %. The volatility of related hype on Krystal Biotech is about 952.17%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 281.68. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.66. Krystal Biotech had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 20 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Krystal Biotech to cross-verify your projections.Krystal Biotech Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Krystal Biotech's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Krystal Biotech's future price movements. Getting to know how Krystal Biotech's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Krystal Biotech may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CRSP | Crispr Therapeutics AG | 1.34 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.31 | (5.47) | 13.70 | |
| PCVX | Vaxcyte | 1.34 | 14 per month | 2.30 | 0.09 | 6.38 | (3.42) | 15.14 | |
| PTCT | PTC Therapeutics | 1.34 | 10 per month | 2.12 | 0.04 | 3.88 | (3.49) | 13.88 | |
| ARWR | Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals | (0.44) | 9 per month | 2.89 | 0.18 | 10.85 | (5.77) | 32.02 | |
| TGTX | TG Therapeutics | (0.95) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.96 | (3.85) | 11.58 | |
| ALKS | Alkermes Plc | (0.95) | 27 per month | 2.10 | 0.03 | 3.82 | (3.30) | 11.41 | |
| MTSR | Metsera Common Stock | (0.13) | 8 per month | 2.40 | 0.17 | 14.25 | (4.09) | 75.60 | |
| ACLX | Arcellx | (1.05) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 4.75 | (4.57) | 22.18 | |
| PTGX | Protagonist Therapeutics | (0.95) | 29 per month | 2.01 | 0.03 | 3.36 | (3.43) | 9.48 | |
| TFX | Teleflex Incorporated | 2.75 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.48 | (3.77) | 22.60 |
Other Forecasting Options for Krystal Biotech
For every potential investor in Krystal, whether a beginner or expert, Krystal Biotech's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Krystal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Krystal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Krystal Biotech's price trends.Krystal Biotech Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Krystal Biotech stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Krystal Biotech could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Krystal Biotech by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Krystal Biotech Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Krystal Biotech stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Krystal Biotech shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Krystal Biotech stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Krystal Biotech entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 15753.59 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.54) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 287.64 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 285.6 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (9.91) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (7.60) |
Krystal Biotech Risk Indicators
The analysis of Krystal Biotech's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Krystal Biotech's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting krystal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.19 | |||
| Variance | 4.79 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.74 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.47 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.99) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Krystal Biotech
The number of cover stories for Krystal Biotech depends on current market conditions and Krystal Biotech's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Krystal Biotech is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Krystal Biotech's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Krystal Biotech Short Properties
Krystal Biotech's future price predictability will typically decrease when Krystal Biotech's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Krystal Biotech often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Krystal Biotech's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Krystal Biotech's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 29.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 597.5 M |
Additional Tools for Krystal Stock Analysis
When running Krystal Biotech's price analysis, check to measure Krystal Biotech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Krystal Biotech is operating at the current time. Most of Krystal Biotech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Krystal Biotech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Krystal Biotech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Krystal Biotech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.