Kura Oncology Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| KURA Stock | USD 8.63 0.46 5.06% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kura Oncology on the next trading day is expected to be 8.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.69. Kura Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Kura Oncology stock prices and determine the direction of Kura Oncology's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Kura Oncology's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time the rsi of Kura Oncology's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.16) | EPS Estimate Current Year (2.49) | EPS Estimate Next Year (2.60) | Wall Street Target Price 32.5455 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.68) |
Using Kura Oncology hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Kura Oncology from the perspective of Kura Oncology response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Kura Oncology using Kura Oncology's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Kura using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Kura Oncology's stock price.
Kura Oncology Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Kura Oncology's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Kura. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Kura Oncology stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 8.0461 | Short Percent 0.1303 | Short Ratio 6.79 | Shares Short Prior Month 8.2 M | 50 Day MA 10.5028 |
Kura Oncology Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Kura Oncology's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Kura. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Kura can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Kura Oncology. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Kura Oncology Implied Volatility | 1.6 |
Kura Oncology's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Kura Oncology stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Kura Oncology's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Kura Oncology stock will not fluctuate a lot when Kura Oncology's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kura Oncology on the next trading day is expected to be 8.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.69. Kura Oncology after-hype prediction price | USD 8.56 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kura Oncology to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Kura contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Kura Oncology will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.1% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Kura Oncology trading at USD 8.63, that is roughly USD 0.00863 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Kura Oncology's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Kura Oncology options at the current volatility level of 1.6%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Kura Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Kura Oncology's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Kura Oncology's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Kura Oncology stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Kura Oncology's open interest, investors have to compare it to Kura Oncology's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Kura Oncology is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Kura. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Kura Oncology Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Kura price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Kura using various technical indicators. When you analyze Kura charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Kura Oncology Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kura Oncology on the next trading day is expected to be 8.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.69.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kura Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kura Oncology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Kura Oncology Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Kura Oncology | Kura Oncology Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Kura Oncology Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Kura Oncology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kura Oncology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.78 and 12.50, respectively. We have considered Kura Oncology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kura Oncology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kura Oncology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.2633 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0472 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3064 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0295 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.6892 |
Predictive Modules for Kura Oncology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kura Oncology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Kura Oncology After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Kura Oncology at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Kura Oncology or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Kura Oncology, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Kura Oncology Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Kura Oncology's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Kura Oncology's historical news coverage. Kura Oncology's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.70 and 12.42, respectively. We have considered Kura Oncology's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Kura Oncology is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Kura Oncology is based on 3 months time horizon.
Kura Oncology Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Kura Oncology is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Kura Oncology backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Kura Oncology, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 3.86 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 17 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 17 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
8.63 | 8.56 | 0.81 |
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Kura Oncology Hype Timeline
Kura Oncology is now traded for 8.63. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. Kura is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 8.56. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.81%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.33%. The volatility of related hype on Kura Oncology is about 2992.25%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.59. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Kura Oncology was now reported as 2.79. The company recorded a loss per share of 2.48. Kura Oncology had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 17 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kura Oncology to cross-verify your projections.Kura Oncology Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Kura Oncology's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Kura Oncology's future price movements. Getting to know how Kura Oncology's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Kura Oncology may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PRME | Prime Medicine Common | 0.19 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 12.57 | (8.59) | 23.00 | |
| EYPT | Eyepoint Pharmaceuticals | (0.20) | 3 per month | 3.38 | 0.08 | 7.21 | (4.89) | 20.13 | |
| PROK | ProKidney Corp | (0.20) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 6.82 | (8.95) | 25.70 | |
| BCAX | Bicara Therapeutics Common | (0.20) | 21 per month | 3.82 | (0.01) | 6.05 | (7.08) | 18.88 | |
| MRVI | Maravai Lifesciences Holdings | 0.03 | 9 per month | 3.28 | 0.02 | 8.38 | (6.35) | 20.24 | |
| TYRA | Tyra Biosciences | (0.20) | 14 per month | 1.80 | 0.26 | 6.05 | (3.43) | 34.11 | |
| RZLT | Rezolute | (0.22) | 8 per month | 15.47 | 0.04 | 18.05 | (9.22) | 99.29 | |
| TNGX | Tango Therapeutics | (0.20) | 3 per month | 4.12 | 0.08 | 11.29 | (6.24) | 31.20 | |
| REPL | Replimune Group | (0.09) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.56 | (5.39) | 20.44 | |
| SVRA | Savara Inc | (0.20) | 14 per month | 2.82 | 0.14 | 8.25 | (4.98) | 24.50 |
Other Forecasting Options for Kura Oncology
For every potential investor in Kura, whether a beginner or expert, Kura Oncology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kura Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kura. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kura Oncology's price trends.Kura Oncology Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kura Oncology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kura Oncology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kura Oncology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Kura Oncology Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kura Oncology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kura Oncology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kura Oncology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Kura Oncology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 107473.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.78) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.95 | |||
| Day Median Price | 8.89 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 8.8 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.48) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.46) |
Kura Oncology Risk Indicators
The analysis of Kura Oncology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kura Oncology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kura stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.16 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.23 | |||
| Variance | 17.89 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Kura Oncology
The number of cover stories for Kura Oncology depends on current market conditions and Kura Oncology's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Kura Oncology is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Kura Oncology's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Kura Oncology Short Properties
Kura Oncology's future price predictability will typically decrease when Kura Oncology's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Kura Oncology often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Kura Oncology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kura Oncology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 86.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 727.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kura Oncology to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Kura Stock refer to our How to Trade Kura Stock guide.You can also try the AI Portfolio Prophet module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Kura Oncology. If investors know Kura will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Kura Oncology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Kura Oncology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Kura that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Kura Oncology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Kura Oncology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Kura Oncology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Kura Oncology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Kura Oncology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Kura Oncology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Kura Oncology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.