Lithia Motors Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| LAD Stock | USD 322.50 12.44 3.71% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lithia Motors on the next trading day is expected to be 322.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 271.56. Lithia Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Lithia Motors stock prices and determine the direction of Lithia Motors's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Lithia Motors' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the value of rsi of Lithia Motors' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.114 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 8.4834 | EPS Estimate Current Year 35.2321 | EPS Estimate Next Year 38.008 | Wall Street Target Price 396.7143 |
Using Lithia Motors hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lithia Motors from the perspective of Lithia Motors response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Lithia Motors using Lithia Motors' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Lithia using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Lithia Motors' stock price.
Lithia Motors Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Lithia Motors' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Lithia. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Lithia Motors stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 318.1448 | Short Percent 0.0837 | Short Ratio 6.57 | Shares Short Prior Month 2 M | 50 Day MA 325.645 |
Lithia Motors Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Lithia Motors' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Lithia. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Lithia can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Lithia Motors. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Lithia Motors Implied Volatility | 0.59 |
Lithia Motors' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Lithia Motors stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Lithia Motors' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Lithia Motors stock will not fluctuate a lot when Lithia Motors' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lithia Motors on the next trading day is expected to be 322.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 271.56. Lithia Motors after-hype prediction price | USD 322.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lithia Motors to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Lithia contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Lithia Motors will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0369% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Lithia Motors trading at USD 322.5, that is roughly USD 0.12 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Lithia Motors' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Lithia Motors options at the current volatility level of 0.59%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Lithia Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Lithia Motors' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Lithia Motors' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Lithia Motors stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Lithia Motors' open interest, investors have to compare it to Lithia Motors' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Lithia Motors is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Lithia. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Lithia Motors Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lithia price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lithia using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lithia charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lithia Motors Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lithia Motors on the next trading day is expected to be 322.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.53, mean absolute percentage error of 38.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 271.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lithia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lithia Motors' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lithia Motors Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lithia Motors | Lithia Motors Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Lithia Motors Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lithia Motors' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lithia Motors' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 320.57 and 324.43, respectively. We have considered Lithia Motors' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lithia Motors stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lithia Motors stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.9123 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.079 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.526 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0141 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 271.56 |
Predictive Modules for Lithia Motors
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lithia Motors. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Lithia Motors After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lithia Motors at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lithia Motors or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lithia Motors, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lithia Motors Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lithia Motors' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lithia Motors' historical news coverage. Lithia Motors' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 320.57 and 324.43, respectively. We have considered Lithia Motors' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lithia Motors is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lithia Motors is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lithia Motors Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lithia Motors is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lithia Motors backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lithia Motors, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.93 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
322.50 | 322.50 | 0.00 |
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Lithia Motors Hype Timeline
On the 25th of January Lithia Motors is traded for 322.50. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.03. Lithia is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Lithia Motors is about 152.81%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 322.53. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.16. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Lithia Motors has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.62. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 34.6. The firm last dividend was issued on the 7th of November 2025. Lithia Motors had 1:10 split on the 16th of January 2018. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lithia Motors to cross-verify your projections.Lithia Motors Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lithia Motors' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lithia Motors' future price movements. Getting to know how Lithia Motors' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lithia Motors may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AN | AutoNation | 4.06 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.06 | (2.56) | 8.76 | |
| LKQ | LKQ Corporation | 0.29 | 9 per month | 1.64 | 0.07 | 3.36 | (2.55) | 9.62 | |
| KMX | CarMax Inc | 0.12 | 21 per month | 5.00 | 0.03 | 5.33 | (4.21) | 28.21 | |
| LEVI | Levi Strauss Co | 0.42 | 7 per month | 1.71 | (0.01) | 3.64 | (3.46) | 8.59 | |
| PAG | Penske Automotive Group | (0.46) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.62 | (2.38) | 6.07 | |
| GAP | The Gap | 0.81 | 8 per month | 1.63 | 0.10 | 6.37 | (2.84) | 12.19 | |
| ABG | Asbury Automotive Group | 1.38 | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.65 | (3.10) | 8.25 | |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings | 0.84 | 8 per month | 0.83 | 0.25 | 3.31 | (1.54) | 6.81 | |
| VFS | VinFast Auto Ltd | 0.81 | 25 per month | 2.46 | (0.01) | 3.29 | (3.83) | 15.20 | |
| MOD | Modine Manufacturing | 4.36 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 5.82 | (7.46) | 23.70 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lithia Motors
For every potential investor in Lithia, whether a beginner or expert, Lithia Motors' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lithia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lithia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lithia Motors' price trends.Lithia Motors Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lithia Motors stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lithia Motors could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lithia Motors by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lithia Motors Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lithia Motors stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lithia Motors shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lithia Motors stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lithia Motors entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.043 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.86) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 327.1 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 325.56 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 14.39 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (10.81) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (12.44) |
Lithia Motors Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lithia Motors' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lithia Motors' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lithia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.5 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Variance | 4.16 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.96 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.63 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.74) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lithia Motors
The number of cover stories for Lithia Motors depends on current market conditions and Lithia Motors' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lithia Motors is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lithia Motors' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lithia Motors Short Properties
Lithia Motors' future price predictability will typically decrease when Lithia Motors' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lithia Motors often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lithia Motors' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lithia Motors' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 27.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 402.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lithia Motors to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Lithia Stock refer to our How to Trade Lithia Stock guide.You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Is Automotive Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lithia Motors. If investors know Lithia will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lithia Motors listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.114 | Dividend Share 2.18 | Earnings Share 34.6 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.049 |
The market value of Lithia Motors is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lithia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lithia Motors' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lithia Motors' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lithia Motors' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lithia Motors' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lithia Motors' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Lithia Motors is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lithia Motors' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.