Lazard Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| LAZ Stock | USD 54.04 1.69 3.23% |
Lazard Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength indicator of Lazard's share price is at 56. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Lazard, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.43) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.7312 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.6522 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.8686 | Wall Street Target Price 60.375 |
Using Lazard hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lazard from the perspective of Lazard response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Lazard using Lazard's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Lazard using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Lazard's stock price.
Lazard Short Interest
An investor who is long Lazard may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Lazard and may potentially protect profits, hedge Lazard with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 49.6247 | Short Percent 0.0568 | Short Ratio 6.02 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.9 M | 50 Day MA 51.087 |
Lazard Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lazard on the next trading day is expected to be 54.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.87 and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.16.Lazard Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Lazard's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Lazard. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Lazard can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Lazard. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Lazard's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Lazard.
Lazard Implied Volatility | 0.51 |
Lazard's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Lazard stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Lazard's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Lazard stock will not fluctuate a lot when Lazard's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lazard on the next trading day is expected to be 54.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.87 and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.16. Lazard after-hype prediction price | USD 53.96 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lazard to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Lazard contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Lazard will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0319% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Lazard trading at USD 54.04, that is roughly USD 0.0172 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Lazard's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Lazard options at the current volatility level of 0.51%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Lazard Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Lazard's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Lazard's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Lazard stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Lazard's open interest, investors have to compare it to Lazard's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Lazard is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Lazard. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Lazard Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lazard price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lazard using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lazard charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lazard Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lazard on the next trading day is expected to be 54.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.87, mean absolute percentage error of 1.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.16.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lazard Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lazard's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lazard Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lazard | Lazard Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Lazard Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lazard's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lazard's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 51.94 and 56.16, respectively. We have considered Lazard's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lazard stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lazard stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1616 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8671 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.017 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 51.1578 |
Predictive Modules for Lazard
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lazard. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Lazard After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lazard at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lazard or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lazard, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lazard Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lazard's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lazard's historical news coverage. Lazard's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 51.85 and 56.07, respectively. We have considered Lazard's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lazard is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lazard is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lazard Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lazard is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lazard backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lazard, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 2.11 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 7 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
54.04 | 53.96 | 0.15 |
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Lazard Hype Timeline
On the 4th of February Lazard is traded for 54.04. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.08. Lazard is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 53.96. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.15%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.16%. The volatility of related hype on Lazard is about 438.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 53.96. About 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.0. Lazard last dividend was issued on the 9th of February 2026. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lazard to cross-verify your projections.Lazard Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lazard's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lazard's future price movements. Getting to know how Lazard's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lazard may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MC | Moelis Co | (1.74) | 10 per month | 1.91 | 0.02 | 3.36 | (3.50) | 9.78 | |
| SNEX | Stonex Group | (2.54) | 9 per month | 1.89 | 0.12 | 4.36 | (3.12) | 9.30 | |
| BGC | BGC Group | 0.08 | 9 per month | 1.53 | (0.03) | 2.45 | (2.84) | 6.73 | |
| PJT | PJT Partners | (4.93) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.08 | (4.73) | 10.14 | |
| RJF | Raymond James Financial | (2.86) | 6 per month | 1.33 | 0.03 | 2.22 | (2.20) | 5.52 | |
| VIRT | Virtu Financial | 0.69 | 9 per month | 1.70 | 0.07 | 2.81 | (2.32) | 13.20 | |
| NNI | Nelnet Inc | 2.77 | 8 per month | 1.30 | 0.01 | 2.43 | (2.15) | 6.95 | |
| PIPR | Piper Sandler Companies | 3.80 | 10 per month | 1.95 | 0 | 3.02 | (3.13) | 9.28 | |
| AUB | Atlantic Union Bankshares | (0.42) | 6 per month | 0.99 | 0.17 | 3.79 | (1.90) | 9.06 | |
| FFIN | First Financial Bankshares | 0.34 | 10 per month | 1.18 | 0.06 | 2.72 | (1.75) | 7.40 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lazard
For every potential investor in Lazard, whether a beginner or expert, Lazard's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lazard Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lazard. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lazard's price trends.Lazard Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lazard stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lazard could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lazard by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lazard Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lazard stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lazard shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lazard stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lazard entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Lazard Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lazard's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lazard's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lazard stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.02 | |||
| Variance | 4.07 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.72 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.11 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.39) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lazard
The number of cover stories for Lazard depends on current market conditions and Lazard's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lazard is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lazard's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lazard Short Properties
Lazard's future price predictability will typically decrease when Lazard's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lazard often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lazard's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lazard's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 106.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.7 B |
Additional Tools for Lazard Stock Analysis
When running Lazard's price analysis, check to measure Lazard's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lazard is operating at the current time. Most of Lazard's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lazard's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lazard's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lazard to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.