Liberty Oilfield Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| LBRT Stock | USD 21.10 0.26 1.25% |
Liberty Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Liberty Oilfield's share price is at 58. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Liberty Oilfield, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.41) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.19) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.08) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.42) | Wall Street Target Price 20.5 |
Using Liberty Oilfield hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Liberty Oilfield Services from the perspective of Liberty Oilfield response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Liberty Oilfield using Liberty Oilfield's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Liberty using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Liberty Oilfield's stock price.
Liberty Oilfield Short Interest
An investor who is long Liberty Oilfield may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Liberty Oilfield and may potentially protect profits, hedge Liberty Oilfield with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 13.9598 | Short Percent 0.0719 | Short Ratio 2.38 | Shares Short Prior Month 11.3 M | 50 Day MA 18.5592 |
Liberty Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Liberty Oilfield Services on the next trading day is expected to be 21.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.32.Liberty Oilfield Services Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Liberty Oilfield's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Liberty. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Liberty can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Liberty Oilfield Services. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Liberty Oilfield's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Liberty Oilfield.
Liberty Oilfield Implied Volatility | 1.08 |
Liberty Oilfield's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Liberty Oilfield Services stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Liberty Oilfield's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Liberty Oilfield stock will not fluctuate a lot when Liberty Oilfield's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Liberty Oilfield Services on the next trading day is expected to be 21.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.32. Liberty Oilfield after-hype prediction price | USD 21.1 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Liberty Oilfield to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Liberty contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Liberty Oilfield Services will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0675% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Liberty Oilfield trading at USD 21.1, that is roughly USD 0.0142 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Liberty Oilfield's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Liberty Oilfield Services options at the current volatility level of 1.08%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Liberty Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Liberty Oilfield's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Liberty Oilfield's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Liberty Oilfield stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Liberty Oilfield's open interest, investors have to compare it to Liberty Oilfield's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Liberty Oilfield is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Liberty. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Liberty Oilfield Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Liberty price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Liberty using various technical indicators. When you analyze Liberty charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Liberty Oilfield Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Liberty Oilfield Services on the next trading day is expected to be 21.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45, mean absolute percentage error of 0.31, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.32.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Liberty Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Liberty Oilfield's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Liberty Oilfield Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Liberty Oilfield | Liberty Oilfield Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Liberty Oilfield Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Liberty Oilfield's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Liberty Oilfield's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.26 and 24.14, respectively. We have considered Liberty Oilfield's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Liberty Oilfield stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Liberty Oilfield stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0833 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4461 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0246 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.3195 |
Predictive Modules for Liberty Oilfield
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Liberty Oilfield Services. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Liberty Oilfield After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Liberty Oilfield at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Liberty Oilfield or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Liberty Oilfield, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Liberty Oilfield Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Liberty Oilfield's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Liberty Oilfield's historical news coverage. Liberty Oilfield's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.16 and 24.04, respectively. We have considered Liberty Oilfield's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Liberty Oilfield is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Liberty Oilfield Services is based on 3 months time horizon.
Liberty Oilfield Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Liberty Oilfield is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Liberty Oilfield backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Liberty Oilfield, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 2.94 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
21.10 | 21.10 | 0.00 |
|
Liberty Oilfield Hype Timeline
Liberty Oilfield Services is now traded for 21.10. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.1. Liberty is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.23%. %. The volatility of related hype on Liberty Oilfield is about 644.74%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.20. About 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.63. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Liberty Oilfield Services has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.5. The entity last dividend was issued on the 4th of March 2026. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Liberty Oilfield to cross-verify your projections.Liberty Oilfield Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Liberty Oilfield's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Liberty Oilfield's future price movements. Getting to know how Liberty Oilfield's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Liberty Oilfield may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WHD | Cactus Inc | 0.53 | 8 per month | 1.26 | 0.23 | 3.80 | (2.76) | 11.21 | |
| TDW | Tidewater | (0.19) | 8 per month | 2.58 | 0.12 | 6.86 | (5.04) | 15.89 | |
| USAC | USA Compression Partners | 0.81 | 13 per month | 1.48 | 0.06 | 3.03 | (2.59) | 10.45 | |
| KGS | Kodiak Gas Services | 0.37 | 9 per month | 1.91 | 0.10 | 3.17 | (2.63) | 9.67 | |
| STNG | Scorpio Tankers | 2.46 | 8 per month | 1.69 | (0.01) | 3.24 | (2.67) | 12.30 | |
| OII | Oceaneering International | (0.65) | 10 per month | 1.89 | 0.10 | 5.21 | (3.35) | 12.51 | |
| BSM | Black Stone Minerals | 0.30 | 8 per month | 1.22 | 0.12 | 2.11 | (1.77) | 6.75 | |
| CIVI | Civitas Resources | (0.47) | 10 per month | 2.35 | (0) | 3.75 | (4.19) | 11.71 | |
| ARLP | Alliance Resource Partners | 0.13 | 6 per month | 1.27 | (0.01) | 1.93 | (2.42) | 7.01 | |
| DKL | Delek Logistics Partners | 1.27 | 9 per month | 1.27 | 0.08 | 2.18 | (1.69) | 10.05 |
Other Forecasting Options for Liberty Oilfield
For every potential investor in Liberty, whether a beginner or expert, Liberty Oilfield's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Liberty Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Liberty. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Liberty Oilfield's price trends.Liberty Oilfield Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Liberty Oilfield stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Liberty Oilfield could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Liberty Oilfield by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Liberty Oilfield Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Liberty Oilfield stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Liberty Oilfield shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Liberty Oilfield stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Liberty Oilfield Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Liberty Oilfield Risk Indicators
The analysis of Liberty Oilfield's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Liberty Oilfield's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting liberty stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.4 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.3 | |||
| Variance | 10.87 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.49 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.92 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.51) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Liberty Oilfield
The number of cover stories for Liberty Oilfield depends on current market conditions and Liberty Oilfield's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Liberty Oilfield is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Liberty Oilfield's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Liberty Oilfield Short Properties
Liberty Oilfield's future price predictability will typically decrease when Liberty Oilfield's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Liberty Oilfield Services often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Liberty Oilfield's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Liberty Oilfield's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 169.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 20 M |
Additional Tools for Liberty Stock Analysis
When running Liberty Oilfield's price analysis, check to measure Liberty Oilfield's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Liberty Oilfield is operating at the current time. Most of Liberty Oilfield's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Liberty Oilfield's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Liberty Oilfield's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Liberty Oilfield to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.