Lucid Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| LCID Stock | USD 6.34 0.29 4.79% |
Double Exponential Smoothing is applied to Lucid Group's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. These values update automatically with each new closing price. AIC measures relative model quality — lower AIC values indicate a better-fitting model. The Double Exponential Smoothing model projects Lucid at 6.21 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. This Double Exponential Smoothing output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 9th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing model forecasts Lucid at 6.21 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.04 , and sum of absolute errors of 18.39 .This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Lucid's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lucid | Lucid Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Lucid's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The current forecast range spans downside near 1.97 and upside near 10.45. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Double Exponential Smoothing model's error metrics for Lucid stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0693 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3117 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0356 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.39 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lucid
The distribution of Lucid's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This reveals hidden support and resistance zones in Lucid's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of Lucid's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price foreshadow trend changes in Lucid.Lucid Related Equities
Sizing up Lucid against these stocks within the Consumer Discretionary space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Peer review on balance sheet metrics shows how Lucid's capital structure stacks up against similar firms. When Lucid breaks from its peer group on a key metric, it often signals a firm-level change worth exploring.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lucid Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Lucid stock provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. A rising Accumulation/Distribution line alongside rising price confirms institutional buying interest in Lucid. Median and Typical Price smooth out intraday extremes, providing a cleaner reference level for evaluating Lucid sessions. Persistent divergence between momentum indicators and price often precedes trend reversals in Lucid.
Lucid Risk Indicators
Assessing Lucid's risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for lucid stock. The level of risk embedded in Lucid's feeds directly into exposure calibration. Comparing Lucid's downside variance to total variance reveals whether the risk profile is skewed toward losses. These risk measures complement the price analysis above by framing how dispersed recent returns have been.
| Mean Deviation | 3.56 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.63 | |||
| Variance | 21.44 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Lucid Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Lucid reveal whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 327.37 million | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 997.83 million |