Lucid Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| LCID Stock | USD 11.07 0.26 2.29% |
Lucid Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Lucid stock prices and determine the direction of Lucid Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Lucid's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the value of RSI of Lucid's share price is approaching 43. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Lucid, making its price go up or down. Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Lucid hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lucid Group from the perspective of Lucid response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Lucid Group on the next trading day is expected to be 11.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.33. Lucid after-hype prediction price | USD 11.07 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lucid to cross-verify your projections. Lucid Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lucid price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lucid using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lucid charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lucid Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Lucid Group on the next trading day is expected to be 11.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55, mean absolute percentage error of 0.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lucid Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lucid's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lucid Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lucid | Lucid Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Lucid Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lucid's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lucid's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.56 and 15.58, respectively. We have considered Lucid's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lucid stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lucid stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.662 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1494 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5481 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.044 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 32.335 |
Predictive Modules for Lucid
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lucid Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Lucid After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lucid at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lucid or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lucid, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lucid Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lucid's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lucid's historical news coverage. Lucid's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.56 and 15.58, respectively. We have considered Lucid's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lucid is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lucid Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lucid Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lucid is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lucid backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lucid, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.56 | 4.51 | 0.08 | 0.18 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.07 | 11.07 | 0.00 |
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Lucid Hype Timeline
Lucid Group is now traded for 11.07. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.18. Lucid is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.56%. %. The volatility of related hype on Lucid is about 1413.79%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.25. About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Lucid was now reported as 5.55. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.13. Lucid Group recorded a loss per share of 10.27. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:10 split on the 2nd of September 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lucid to cross-verify your projections.Lucid Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lucid's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lucid's future price movements. Getting to know how Lucid's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lucid may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GPI | Group 1 Automotive | (2.21) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.58 | (2.66) | 11.48 | |
| GNTX | Gentex | (0.20) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.63 | (2.24) | 7.12 | |
| BBWI | Bath Body Works | (0.57) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.16 | (4.50) | 27.08 | |
| ABG | Asbury Automotive Group | 5.08 | 6 per month | 1.74 | (0.01) | 3.65 | (2.74) | 10.40 | |
| VFS | VinFast Auto Ltd | 1.73 | 2 per month | 2.23 | (0) | 3.29 | (3.66) | 15.20 | |
| REYN | Reynolds Consumer Products | 0.20 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.25 | (1.91) | 9.71 | |
| SEE | Sealed Air | 0.04 | 11 per month | 0.51 | 0.11 | 2.13 | (1.31) | 19.98 | |
| VFC | VF Corporation | 0.37 | 25 per month | 1.98 | 0.17 | 5.39 | (3.53) | 16.55 | |
| LEA | Lear Corporation | 0.57 | 9 per month | 1.42 | 0.11 | 3.50 | (2.89) | 8.69 | |
| THO | Thor Industries | (1.82) | 22 per month | 2.07 | 0.04 | 3.76 | (2.29) | 14.53 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lucid
For every potential investor in Lucid, whether a beginner or expert, Lucid's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lucid Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lucid. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lucid's price trends.Lucid Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lucid stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lucid could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lucid by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lucid Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lucid stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lucid shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lucid stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lucid Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Lucid Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lucid's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lucid's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lucid stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.51 | |||
| Variance | 20.32 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lucid
The number of cover stories for Lucid depends on current market conditions and Lucid's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lucid is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lucid's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lucid Short Properties
Lucid's future price predictability will typically decrease when Lucid's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lucid Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lucid's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lucid's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 244.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lucid to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could Lucid diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lucid. Expected growth trajectory for Lucid significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Lucid data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Lucid Group's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Lucid's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Lucid's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Lucid's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Understanding that Lucid's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Lucid represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. However, Lucid's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.