Lautan Luas Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

LTLS Stock  IDR 810.00  5.00  0.61%   
Lautan Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the value of rsi of Lautan Luas' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 15

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Lautan Luas' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Lautan Luas Tbk, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Lautan Luas hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lautan Luas Tbk from the perspective of Lautan Luas response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Lautan Luas Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 815.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.71 and the sum of the absolute errors of 836.16.

Lautan Luas after-hype prediction price

    
  IDR 810.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lautan Luas to cross-verify your projections.

Lautan Luas Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Lautan price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lautan using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lautan charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Lautan Luas price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Lautan Luas Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Lautan Luas Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 815.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.71, mean absolute percentage error of 294.56, and the sum of the absolute errors of 836.16.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lautan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lautan Luas' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Lautan Luas Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Lautan Luas  Lautan Luas Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Lautan Luas Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Lautan Luas' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lautan Luas' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 814.33 and 816.35, respectively. We have considered Lautan Luas' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
810.00
814.33
Downside
815.34
Expected Value
816.35
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lautan Luas stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lautan Luas stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria123.796
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation13.7076
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0162
SAESum of the absolute errors836.1645
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Lautan Luas Tbk historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Lautan Luas

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lautan Luas Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
808.99810.00811.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
691.99693.00891.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
810.00810.00810.00
Details

Lautan Luas After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Lautan Luas at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lautan Luas or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lautan Luas, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Lautan Luas Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Lautan Luas' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lautan Luas' historical news coverage. Lautan Luas' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 808.99 and 811.01, respectively. We have considered Lautan Luas' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
810.00
808.99
Downside
810.00
After-hype Price
811.01
Upside
Lautan Luas is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lautan Luas Tbk is based on 3 months time horizon.

Lautan Luas Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lautan Luas is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lautan Luas backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lautan Luas, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.06 
1.01
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Uncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
810.00
810.00
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Lautan Luas Hype Timeline

Lautan Luas Tbk is now traded for 810.00on Jakarta Exchange of Indonesia. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Lautan is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on Lautan Luas is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 810.00. About 58.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.83. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Lautan Luas Tbk recorded earning per share (EPS) of 260.0. The entity last dividend was issued on the 16th of November 2022. The firm had 2:1 split on the 9th of January 2015. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lautan Luas to cross-verify your projections.

Lautan Luas Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Lautan Luas' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lautan Luas' future price movements. Getting to know how Lautan Luas' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lautan Luas may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
GJTLGajah Tunggal Tbk 0.00 0 per month 1.25  0.01  2.70 (2.33) 9.26 
LPPFMatahari Department Store 0.00 0 per month 0.64  0.08  2.41 (1.36) 6.54 
MPMXMitra Pinasthika Mustika 0.00 0 per month 0.41  0.01  1.51 (0.98) 3.55 
MAPBMap Boga Adiperkasa 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.07) 3.56 (3.24) 8.58 
ARGOArgo Pantes Tbk 0.00 0 per month 4.41  0.03  13.55 (8.68) 39.69 
WOODIntegra Indocabinet Tbk 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.03) 6.02 (3.23) 16.54 
RALSRamayana Lestari Sentosa 0.00 0 per month 1.14  0.07  3.57 (2.18) 8.01 
FASTFast Food Indonesia 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.07) 6.05 (5.56) 39.98 
DRMADharma Polimetal Tbk 0.00 0 per month 1.55 (0.03) 2.93 (3.21) 7.61 
DAYADuta Intidaya Tbk 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.20) 2.66 (5.17) 16.92 

Other Forecasting Options for Lautan Luas

For every potential investor in Lautan, whether a beginner or expert, Lautan Luas' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lautan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lautan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lautan Luas' price trends.

Lautan Luas Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lautan Luas stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lautan Luas could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lautan Luas by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Lautan Luas Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lautan Luas stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lautan Luas shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lautan Luas stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lautan Luas Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Lautan Luas Risk Indicators

The analysis of Lautan Luas' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lautan Luas' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lautan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Lautan Luas

The number of cover stories for Lautan Luas depends on current market conditions and Lautan Luas' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lautan Luas is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lautan Luas' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Lautan Luas Short Properties

Lautan Luas' future price predictability will typically decrease when Lautan Luas' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lautan Luas Tbk often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lautan Luas' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lautan Luas' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.5 B
Cash And Short Term Investments507.6 B

Other Information on Investing in Lautan Stock

Lautan Luas financial ratios help investors to determine whether Lautan Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Lautan with respect to the benefits of owning Lautan Luas security.