Lantronix Stock Forward View
| LTRX Stock | USD 6.18 0.36 6.19% |
Lantronix Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Lantronix's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Lantronix hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lantronix from the perspective of Lantronix response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lantronix on the next trading day is expected to be 5.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.93. Lantronix after-hype prediction price | USD 5.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Lantronix Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lantronix price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lantronix using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lantronix charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lantronix Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lantronix on the next trading day is expected to be 5.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lantronix Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lantronix's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lantronix Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lantronix | Lantronix Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Lantronix Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lantronix's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lantronix's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.95 and 9.70, respectively. We have considered Lantronix's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lantronix stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lantronix stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.4027 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1955 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.033 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.9278 |
Predictive Modules for Lantronix
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lantronix. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Lantronix After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lantronix at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lantronix or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lantronix, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lantronix Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lantronix's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lantronix's historical news coverage. Lantronix's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.37 and 10.13, respectively. We have considered Lantronix's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lantronix is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lantronix is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lantronix Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lantronix is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lantronix backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lantronix, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.44 | 4.38 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
6.18 | 5.75 | 6.96 |
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Lantronix Hype Timeline
Lantronix is now traded for 6.18. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.11. Lantronix is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 5.75. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -6.96%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.44%. The volatility of related hype on Lantronix is about 1731.23%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.29. About 22.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Lantronix was now reported as 1.88. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.23. Lantronix had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:6 split on the 21st of December 2009. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lantronix to cross-verify your projections.Lantronix Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lantronix's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lantronix's future price movements. Getting to know how Lantronix's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lantronix may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| INSG | Inseego Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.58 | (6.03) | 16.33 | |
| CRNT | Ceragon Networks | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.55 | 0.01 | 4.23 | (4.21) | 9.71 | |
| ARAI | Arrive AI | (0.08) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.32) | 5.35 | (11.80) | 29.79 | |
| KULR | KULR Technology Group | (0.10) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 13.83 | (8.89) | 30.96 | |
| ZEPP | Zepp Health Corp | 1.18 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 8.96 | (14.23) | 31.69 | |
| AXTI | AXT Inc | 1.10 | 10 per month | 5.45 | 0.23 | 17.70 | (9.58) | 35.11 | |
| SQNS | Sequans Communications SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 6.80 | (7.96) | 29.29 | |
| DVLT | Datavault AI | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 32.81 | (13.68) | 72.53 | |
| WALD | Waldencast Acquisition Corp | 0.01 | 11 per month | 4.42 | 0.02 | 10.14 | (8.06) | 33.33 | |
| TCX | Tucows Inc | 0.42 | 7 per month | 2.80 | 0.05 | 5.31 | (4.36) | 16.41 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lantronix
For every potential investor in Lantronix, whether a beginner or expert, Lantronix's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lantronix Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lantronix. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lantronix's price trends.Lantronix Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lantronix stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lantronix could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lantronix by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lantronix Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lantronix stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lantronix shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lantronix stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lantronix entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Lantronix Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lantronix's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lantronix's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lantronix stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.23 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.38 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.38 | |||
| Variance | 19.14 | |||
| Downside Variance | 26.21 | |||
| Semi Variance | 19.21 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.24) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lantronix
The number of cover stories for Lantronix depends on current market conditions and Lantronix's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lantronix is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lantronix's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lantronix Short Properties
Lantronix's future price predictability will typically decrease when Lantronix's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lantronix often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lantronix's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lantronix's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 38.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 20.1 M |
Additional Tools for Lantronix Stock Analysis
When running Lantronix's price analysis, check to measure Lantronix's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lantronix is operating at the current time. Most of Lantronix's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lantronix's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lantronix's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lantronix to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.