Lumen Technologies Stock Forward View
| LUMN Stock | USD 8.00 0.15 1.91% |
Lumen Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Lumen Technologies' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Lumen Technologies' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Lumen Technologies fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Lumen Technologies' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.89) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.22) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.47) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.28) | Wall Street Target Price 7.6436 |
Using Lumen Technologies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lumen Technologies from the perspective of Lumen Technologies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Lumen Technologies using Lumen Technologies' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Lumen using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Lumen Technologies' stock price.
Lumen Technologies Short Interest
An investor who is long Lumen Technologies may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Lumen Technologies and may potentially protect profits, hedge Lumen Technologies with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 6.2093 | Short Percent 0.0645 | Short Ratio 4.07 | Shares Short Prior Month 62.2 M | 50 Day MA 8.2024 |
Lumen Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lumen Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 7.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.49.Lumen Technologies Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Lumen Technologies' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Lumen. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Lumen can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Lumen Technologies. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Lumen Technologies' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Lumen Technologies.
Lumen Technologies Implied Volatility | 1.01 |
Lumen Technologies' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Lumen Technologies stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Lumen Technologies' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Lumen Technologies stock will not fluctuate a lot when Lumen Technologies' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lumen Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 7.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.49.
Lumen Technologies after-hype prediction price | USD 7.89 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lumen Technologies to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Lumen contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Lumen Technologies will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0631% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Lumen Technologies trading at USD 8.0, that is roughly USD 0.00505 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Lumen Technologies' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Lumen Technologies options at the current volatility level of 1.01%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Lumen Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Lumen Technologies' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Lumen Technologies' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Lumen Technologies stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Lumen Technologies' open interest, investors have to compare it to Lumen Technologies' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Lumen Technologies is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Lumen. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Lumen Technologies Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lumen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lumen using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lumen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lumen Technologies Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Lumen Technologies' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1986-12-31 | Previous Quarter 1.6 B | Current Value 1 B | Quarterly Volatility 533.9 M |
Lumen Technologies Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 14th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lumen Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 7.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36, mean absolute percentage error of 0.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.49.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lumen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lumen Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lumen Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lumen Technologies | Lumen Technologies Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Lumen Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lumen Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lumen Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.10 and 13.32, respectively. We have considered Lumen Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lumen Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lumen Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.5751 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3627 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0458 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.4894 |
Predictive Modules for Lumen Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lumen Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Lumen Technologies After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lumen Technologies at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lumen Technologies or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lumen Technologies, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lumen Technologies Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lumen Technologies' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lumen Technologies' historical news coverage. Lumen Technologies' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.83 and 13.95, respectively. We have considered Lumen Technologies' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lumen Technologies is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lumen Technologies is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lumen Technologies Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lumen Technologies is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lumen Technologies backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lumen Technologies, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 6.11 | 0.11 | 0.23 | 7 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
8.00 | 7.89 | 1.38 |
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Lumen Technologies Hype Timeline
Lumen Technologies is now traded for 8.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.23. Lumen is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 7.89. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.38%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Lumen Technologies is about 454.03%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.23. About 71.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.78. Lumen Technologies last dividend was issued on the 29th of August 2022. The entity had 3:2 split on the 1st of April 1999. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lumen Technologies to cross-verify your projections.Lumen Technologies Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lumen Technologies' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lumen Technologies' future price movements. Getting to know how Lumen Technologies' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lumen Technologies may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DIS | Walt Disney | 1.95 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.58 | (2.25) | 10.07 | |
| TMUS | T Mobile | 4.55 | 9 per month | 1.42 | (0) | 2.45 | (2.28) | 6.94 | |
| CMCSA | Comcast Corp | 0.56 | 6 per month | 1.33 | 0.17 | 2.92 | (2.41) | 7.92 | |
| AMX | America Movil SAB | 0.70 | 10 per month | 1.47 | (0.02) | 2.82 | (3.16) | 6.54 | |
| CHTR | Charter Communications | 2.00 | 7 per month | 2.16 | 0.03 | 4.26 | (3.88) | 10.49 | |
| TIMB | TIM Participacoes SA | (0.03) | 9 per month | 1.83 | 0.12 | 3.43 | (2.87) | 9.25 | |
| RCI | Rogers Communications | (0.31) | 10 per month | 1.15 | (0.01) | 1.82 | (1.91) | 8.77 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lumen Technologies
For every potential investor in Lumen, whether a beginner or expert, Lumen Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lumen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lumen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lumen Technologies' price trends.Lumen Technologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lumen Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lumen Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lumen Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lumen Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lumen Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lumen Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lumen Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lumen Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1 M | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.2679 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 7.96 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 7.97 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.12 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.15 |
Lumen Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lumen Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lumen Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lumen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.83 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.11 | |||
| Variance | 37.31 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lumen Technologies
The number of cover stories for Lumen Technologies depends on current market conditions and Lumen Technologies' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lumen Technologies is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lumen Technologies' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lumen Technologies Short Properties
Lumen Technologies' future price predictability will typically decrease when Lumen Technologies' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lumen Technologies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lumen Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lumen Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 994.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lumen Technologies to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Lumen Stock, please use our How to Invest in Lumen Technologies guide.You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.
Will Diversified Telecommunication Services sector continue expanding? Could Lumen diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lumen Technologies. Expected growth trajectory for Lumen significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Lumen Technologies data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.89) | Earnings Share (1.78) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.09) | Return On Assets |
Lumen Technologies's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Lumen's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Lumen Technologies' intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Lumen Technologies' trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Understanding that Lumen Technologies' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Lumen Technologies represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. However, Lumen Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.