Magellan Aerospace Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

MAL Stock  CAD 18.52  0.37  2.04%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Magellan Aerospace on the next trading day is expected to be 17.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.88. Magellan Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, The value of RSI of Magellan Aerospace's share price is at 57. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Magellan Aerospace, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 57

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Magellan Aerospace's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Magellan Aerospace, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Magellan Aerospace hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Magellan Aerospace from the perspective of Magellan Aerospace response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Magellan Aerospace on the next trading day is expected to be 17.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.88.

Magellan Aerospace after-hype prediction price

    
  CAD 18.52  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Magellan Aerospace to cross-verify your projections.

Magellan Aerospace Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Magellan price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Magellan using various technical indicators. When you analyze Magellan charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Magellan Aerospace price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Magellan Aerospace Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Magellan Aerospace on the next trading day is expected to be 17.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57, mean absolute percentage error of 0.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.88.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Magellan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Magellan Aerospace's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Magellan Aerospace Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Magellan AerospaceMagellan Aerospace Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Magellan Aerospace Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Magellan Aerospace's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Magellan Aerospace's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.66 and 20.01, respectively. We have considered Magellan Aerospace's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
18.52
17.84
Expected Value
20.01
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Magellan Aerospace stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Magellan Aerospace stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.2869
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.5717
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0333
SAESum of the absolute errors34.8751
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Magellan Aerospace historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Magellan Aerospace

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Magellan Aerospace. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.3518.5220.69
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
15.7717.9420.11
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
15.7217.5219.33
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Magellan Aerospace

For every potential investor in Magellan, whether a beginner or expert, Magellan Aerospace's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Magellan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Magellan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Magellan Aerospace's price trends.

Magellan Aerospace Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Magellan Aerospace stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Magellan Aerospace could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Magellan Aerospace by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Magellan Aerospace Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Magellan Aerospace's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Magellan Aerospace's current price.

Magellan Aerospace Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Magellan Aerospace stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Magellan Aerospace shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Magellan Aerospace stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Magellan Aerospace entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Magellan Aerospace Risk Indicators

The analysis of Magellan Aerospace's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Magellan Aerospace's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting magellan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Magellan Aerospace

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Magellan Aerospace position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Magellan Aerospace will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Magellan Aerospace could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Magellan Aerospace when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Magellan Aerospace - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Magellan Aerospace to buy it.
The correlation of Magellan Aerospace is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Magellan Aerospace moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Magellan Aerospace moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Magellan Aerospace can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Magellan Stock

Magellan Aerospace financial ratios help investors to determine whether Magellan Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Magellan with respect to the benefits of owning Magellan Aerospace security.