Marathon Digital Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| MARA Stock | USD 8.72 0.40 4.39% |
Marathon Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Marathon Digital stock prices and determine the direction of Marathon Digital Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Marathon Digital's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, the relative strength indicator of Marathon Digital's share price is approaching 34. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Marathon Digital, making its price go up or down. Momentum 34
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.867 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.42 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.525 | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.27) | Wall Street Target Price 20.6591 |
Using Marathon Digital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Marathon Digital Holdings from the perspective of Marathon Digital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Marathon Digital using Marathon Digital's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Marathon using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Marathon Digital's stock price.
Marathon Digital Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Marathon Digital's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Marathon. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Marathon Digital stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 15.0051 | Short Percent 0.3575 | Short Ratio 2.77 | Shares Short Prior Month 103.8 M | 50 Day MA 10.6998 |
Marathon Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Marathon Digital Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 8.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.07.Marathon Digital Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Marathon Digital's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Marathon. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Marathon can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Marathon Digital Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Marathon Digital's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Marathon Digital.
Marathon Digital Implied Volatility | 1.05 |
Marathon Digital's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Marathon Digital Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Marathon Digital's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Marathon Digital stock will not fluctuate a lot when Marathon Digital's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Marathon Digital Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 8.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.07. Marathon Digital after-hype prediction price | USD 9.34 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marathon Digital to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Marathon contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Marathon Digital Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0656% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Marathon Digital trading at USD 8.72, that is roughly USD 0.005723 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Marathon Digital's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Marathon Digital Holdings options at the current volatility level of 1.05%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Marathon Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Marathon Digital's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Marathon Digital's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Marathon Digital stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Marathon Digital's open interest, investors have to compare it to Marathon Digital's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Marathon Digital is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Marathon. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Marathon Digital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Marathon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Marathon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Marathon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Marathon Digital Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Marathon Digital Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 8.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49, mean absolute percentage error of 0.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.07.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Marathon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Marathon Digital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Marathon Digital Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Marathon Digital | Marathon Digital Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Marathon Digital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Marathon Digital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Marathon Digital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.37 and 13.47, respectively. We have considered Marathon Digital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Marathon Digital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Marathon Digital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.4576 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1906 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4928 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0446 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 29.075 |
Predictive Modules for Marathon Digital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marathon Digital Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Marathon Digital After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Marathon Digital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Marathon Digital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Marathon Digital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Marathon Digital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Marathon Digital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Marathon Digital's historical news coverage. Marathon Digital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.79 and 13.89, respectively. We have considered Marathon Digital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Marathon Digital is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Marathon Digital Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Marathon Digital Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Marathon Digital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Marathon Digital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Marathon Digital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.93 | 4.55 | 0.22 | 0.37 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
8.72 | 9.34 | 2.41 |
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Marathon Digital Hype Timeline
Marathon Digital Holdings is now traded for 8.72. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.22, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.37. Marathon is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 9.34 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 2.41%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.93%. The volatility of related hype on Marathon Digital is about 1137.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.35. Marathon Digital Holdings currently holds 2.47 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.16, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marathon Digital to cross-verify your projections.Marathon Digital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Marathon Digital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Marathon Digital's future price movements. Getting to know how Marathon Digital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Marathon Digital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OBDC | Blue Owl Capital | 0.42 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.93 | (1.69) | 6.93 | |
| WULF | Terawulf | (0.03) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 10.37 | (9.48) | 24.71 | |
| PFSI | PennyMac Finl Svcs | (2.02) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.26 | (2.09) | 11.99 | |
| PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners | (1.24) | 8 per month | 1.49 | 0.1 | 3.19 | (2.01) | 8.67 | |
| MKTX | MarketAxess Holdings | 0.37 | 9 per month | 1.57 | (0.01) | 2.52 | (2.77) | 9.15 | |
| VIRT | Virtu Financial | 0.76 | 8 per month | 1.30 | 0.15 | 2.81 | (2.00) | 6.62 | |
| OTF | Blue Owl Technology | 0.05 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.48 | (2.66) | 7.65 | |
| BMNR | Bitmine Immersion Technologies | 1.18 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 10.27 | (10.47) | 32.25 | |
| BOKF | BOK Financial | 1.57 | 8 per month | 0.84 | 0.18 | 3.17 | (1.26) | 7.41 | |
| PIPR | Piper Sandler Companies | (5.06) | 9 per month | 2.17 | (0.03) | 3.02 | (3.13) | 9.28 |
Other Forecasting Options for Marathon Digital
For every potential investor in Marathon, whether a beginner or expert, Marathon Digital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Marathon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Marathon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Marathon Digital's price trends.Marathon Digital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Marathon Digital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Marathon Digital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Marathon Digital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Marathon Digital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Marathon Digital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Marathon Digital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Marathon Digital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Marathon Digital Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Marathon Digital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Marathon Digital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Marathon Digital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting marathon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.55 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.53 | |||
| Variance | 20.49 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Marathon Digital
The number of cover stories for Marathon Digital depends on current market conditions and Marathon Digital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Marathon Digital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Marathon Digital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Marathon Digital Short Properties
Marathon Digital's future price predictability will typically decrease when Marathon Digital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Marathon Digital Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Marathon Digital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Marathon Digital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 311.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 391.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marathon Digital to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Marathon Digital. Expected growth trajectory for Marathon significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Marathon Digital assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.867 | Earnings Share 2.48 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.917 | Return On Assets |
Understanding Marathon Digital Holdings requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Marathon's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Marathon Digital's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Marathon Digital's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Marathon Digital's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Marathon Digital represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Marathon Digital's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.