Matthews International Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MATW Stock | USD 26.49 1.48 5.29% |
Matthews Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of RSI of Matthews International's share price is at 51. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Matthews International, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Matthews International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Matthews International from the perspective of Matthews International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Matthews International on the next trading day is expected to be 26.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.60. Matthews International after-hype prediction price | USD 26.49 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Matthews International to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Matthews Stock please use our How to Invest in Matthews International guide.Matthews International Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Matthews price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Matthews using various technical indicators. When you analyze Matthews charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Matthews International Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Matthews International on the next trading day is expected to be 26.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46, mean absolute percentage error of 0.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.60.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Matthews Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Matthews International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Matthews International Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Matthews International | Matthews International Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Matthews International Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Matthews International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Matthews International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.12 and 28.86, respectively. We have considered Matthews International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Matthews International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Matthews International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.3356 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.057 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.46 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0177 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.6 |
Predictive Modules for Matthews International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Matthews International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Matthews International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Matthews International After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Matthews International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Matthews International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Matthews International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Matthews International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Matthews International's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Matthews International's historical news coverage. Matthews International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 24.12 and 28.86, respectively. We have considered Matthews International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Matthews International is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Matthews International is based on 3 months time horizon.
Matthews International Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Matthews International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Matthews International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Matthews International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 2.37 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
26.49 | 26.49 | 0.00 |
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Matthews International Hype Timeline
Matthews International is now traded for 26.49. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.16. Matthews is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on Matthews International is about 366.31%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 26.33. About 88.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.71. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Matthews International has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.92. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.79. The firm last dividend was issued on the 1st of December 2025. Matthews International had 2:1 split on the 4th of September 2001. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Matthews International to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Matthews Stock please use our How to Invest in Matthews International guide.Matthews International Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Matthews International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Matthews International's future price movements. Getting to know how Matthews International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Matthews International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CRESY | Cresud SACIF y | (1.89) | 10 per month | 1.83 | 0.07 | 4.73 | (3.64) | 12.17 | |
| FIP | FTAI Infrastructure | (0.59) | 16 per month | 3.56 | 0.06 | 7.16 | (6.73) | 18.25 | |
| VLRS | Volaris | (3.63) | 20 per month | 2.07 | 0.14 | 6.58 | (3.19) | 19.39 | |
| SKYH | Sky Harbour Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.60 | (3.32) | 12.01 | |
| SERV | Serve Robotics Common | 0.38 | 20 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 10.62 | (9.56) | 28.21 | |
| CRESW | Cresud SACIF y | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.99 | 0.11 | 10.00 | (9.42) | 21.28 | |
| LGMK | LogicMark | (1.07) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 17.14 | (19.10) | 54.44 | |
| GNK | Genco Shipping Trading | 0.06 | 30 per month | 1.10 | 0.15 | 3.90 | (1.92) | 11.53 | |
| VSTS | Vestis | 0.21 | 11 per month | 3.33 | 0.11 | 6.21 | (6.30) | 18.68 | |
| CODI | Compass Diversified Holdings | 0.06 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.89 | (6.87) | 35.68 |
Other Forecasting Options for Matthews International
For every potential investor in Matthews, whether a beginner or expert, Matthews International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Matthews Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Matthews. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Matthews International's price trends.Matthews International Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Matthews International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Matthews International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Matthews International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Matthews International Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Matthews International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Matthews International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Matthews International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Matthews International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Matthews International Risk Indicators
The analysis of Matthews International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Matthews International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting matthews stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.37 | |||
| Variance | 5.63 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.39 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.12 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.85) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Matthews International
The number of cover stories for Matthews International depends on current market conditions and Matthews International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Matthews International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Matthews International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Matthews International Short Properties
Matthews International's future price predictability will typically decrease when Matthews International's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Matthews International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Matthews International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Matthews International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 31.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 32.4 M |
Additional Tools for Matthews Stock Analysis
When running Matthews International's price analysis, check to measure Matthews International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Matthews International is operating at the current time. Most of Matthews International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Matthews International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Matthews International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Matthews International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.