MBIA Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression

MBI Stock

USD 5.71 -0.68 -10.64%

The Polynomial Regression output for MBIA Inc is derived from daily price data across the evaluation window. The error pattern reveals whether the model tracked prices consistently or diverged during volatile sessions. Parameters are re-estimated as new trading sessions are recorded, keeping the forecast current. The Polynomial Regression model projects MBIA at 6.10 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. MBIA's Polynomial Regression forecast is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Polynomial regression for MBIA fits a curved line through historical price points using time as the independent variable. Unlike simple regression, which fits only a straight line, polynomial regression can capture nonlinear price trends including acceleration and deceleration.

Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 11th of May 2026

Over a 90-day horizon, the Polynomial Regression model forecasts MBIA at 6.10 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and sum of absolute errors of 11.61 .

This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of MBIA's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

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MBIA Price Prediction

Research Analysis

Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast range for MBIA defines statistically derived downside and upside boundaries based on model performance. The current forecast range spans downside near 3.46 and upside near 8.75. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.

Market Value

5.71

3.46

Downside

6.10

Expected Value

8.75

Upside

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Polynomial Regression model's error metrics for MBIA stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	115.1972
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	None
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	0.1904
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0313
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	11.6125

The model takes the form: Y = a₀ + a₁*X + a₂*X² + a₃*X³ + ... + a_m*X^m. Higher-degree polynomials fit MBIA Inc historical data more closely but are more prone to overfitting, which can produce unreliable extrapolations beyond the observed price range.

Other Forecasting Options for MBIA

Relative Strength Index values for MBIA measure the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. Recognizing these clusters in MBIA's returns informs position size and stop-loss calibration. Candlestick pattern analysis of MBIA Stock daily data reveals short-term reversal or continuation signals.

MBIA Related Equities

These stocks are related to MBIA within the Financials space and can be used for peer review, pricing, or spreading risk. Checking cash flow across this peer set helps gauge MBIA's relative financial strength. Sector-wide trends across this peer group split company-level factors from broader forces.

James River Group Midland States Bancorp Ambac Financial Group Selectquote Runway Growth Finance Sound Point Meridian Atlanticus Holdings US Century Bank Bankwell Financial Group MVB Financial Corp American Airlines Group Alcoa Corp Apple Inc Best Buy Co Citigroup

Risk & Return

Correlation

MBIA Market Strength Events

Accumulation/Distribution and Balance of Power for MBIA reveal whether buying or selling pressure dominates recent sessions. Balance of Power trending positive indicates that buyers are consistently closing MBIA near session highs. These signals help explain whether price direction and session structure are moving together for MBIA.

	Accumulation Distribution	0.11
	Daily Balance Of Power	-0.93
	Rate Of Daily Change	0.89
	Day Median Price	6.03
	Day Typical Price	5.92
	Market Facilitation Index	0.73
	Price Action Indicator	-0.65
	Period Momentum Indicator	-0.68

MBIA Risk Indicators

Risk indicator analysis for MBIA quantifies how much price variability the stock has exhibited over the measurement window. Downside variance exceeding total variance indicates that negative moves in MBIA have been larger or more frequent than positive ones. Mean deviation provides a more intuitive measure of typical price fluctuation than variance because it stays in the same units as MBIA's price.

	Mean Deviation	2.0
	Standard Deviation	2.63
	Variance	6.9

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

MBIA Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to MBIA Inc matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.

	Common Stock Shares Outstanding	49.28 million
	Cash And Short Term Investments	1.52 billion

	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average