MBIA Inc Stock Performance

MBI Stock  USD 6.02  0.31  5.43%   
MBIA has performed against its sector and the broad market over time. Based on the 3 months horizon, MBIA shows an expected return of -0.086%.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
0High
0 · Weak
During the last 90 trading days, MBIA Inc produced returns below breakeven, signaling weak efficiency for investors with long positions. At micro-cap scale, institutional coverage and secondary-market liquidity are typically well established. MBIA has produced near-zero returns recently, indicating neutral to weak return quality for holders. Learn More

Actual Historical Performance (%)

 One Day Return
-10.64
 Five Day Return
-4.19
 Year To Date Return
-20.25
 Ten Year Return
-22.10
 All Time Return
-22.10
 Last Split Factor
3:2
 Dividend Date
2023-12-22
 Ex Dividend Date
2023-12-15
 Last Split Date
2001-04-23

Performance Related Modules

Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you had invested $ 616.00 in MBIA Inc on February 10, 2026 and sold it today, you would have lost $ 45.00 , a decline of 7.31% over 90 days. MBIA Inc is generating negative expected returns assuming volatility of 2.62% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. In relative terms, MBIA exhibits above-average volatility, exceeding roughly 77% of comparable stocks, and MBI delivers lower expected returns than 99% of comparable equities over the next 90 days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This relative risk-return summary evaluates how the instrument behaves against its benchmark. It is intended to show how efficiently risk has translated into return over the selected horizon. Over a 90-day investment horizon, MBI has been underperforming the market. Compounding this underperformance, MBI is 2.84 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It converts risk into return at a rate of about -0.03%. Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly -0.02% per unit of volatility.

Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

Historical averages are sometimes used as a secondary reference point when assessing MBIA Stock price behavior. In practice, valuation gaps may persist longer than expected when market sentiment or liquidity conditions dominate trading activity. Changes in interest rates, capital flows, or geopolitical developments can influence how investors value MBIA Stock.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds moving above the current price in 90 days
6.02 90 days 6.02
about 57.09 %
Applying a normal distribution to this stock, the odds of MBIA moving above the current price in 90 days from now are about 57.09 %. Based on past return behavior, the distribution of outcomes has been weighted above current levels over this period. (The probability curve shows the outcome range with the heaviest concentration for MBIA Stock over 90 days). A tighter center suggests recent price behavior has been clustering into a narrower range for MBIA Stock.
Over a 90-day investment horizon, MBIA has a beta of 0.96. This indicates MBIA Inc market returns are responsive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, MBIA tends to follow. Additionally, MBIA Inc has a negative alpha, implying that risk has not been adequately compensated by returns. MBI is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   MBIA Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for MBIA

For MBIA Inc, multiple forecasting techniques provide different perspectives on future stock price direction. No method can consistently predict the stock market with certainty, but disciplined forecasting sharpens analysis. Comparing the outputs of diverse models helps set realistic expectations for MBIA Inc price behavior.
Mean reversion analysis in MBIA's involves identifying price extremes that diverge materially from the historical norm. High prices relative to historical norms contrast with unusually low prices, where recovery expectations may emerge. Mean reversion in MBIA is distinct from trend following, which rides momentum rather than betting on reversals.
Sentiment
Range
LowSentimentHigh
3.416.038.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowIntrinsicHigh
4.076.699.31
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
3.406.028.64
Details
Analyst
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
6.607.258.05
Details
MBIA's financial and valuation profile is evaluated here relative to direct competitors. MBIA's multiples and operating metrics gain context when measured against direct competitors. Growth rates, profitability, and capital efficiency relative to peers frame MBIA's competitive position.

Primary Risk Indicators

The stock market's volatility over the past 10-20 years has tested even experienced investors in MBIA. Large corrections and rapid recoveries have created challenges for investors in MBIA Inc. A disciplined approach to monitoring MBIA's risk indicators supports more effective hedging decisions.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.1626
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.96
σ
Overall volatility
0.28
Ir
Information ratio -0.0618

Investor Alerts and Insights

Monitoring MBIA alerts is a practical approach to staying informed about material stock changes. Reviewing ongoing notifications for MBIA Inc helps identify opportunities and risks before they are fully priced in. Multiple alert categories for MBIA focus on the signals most relevant to a given strategy.
MBIA Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
MBIA Inc has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
MBI reported last year's revenue of $80 million. Reported Net Loss for the year was -$177 million with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of $113 million.
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: MBIA Non-GAAP EPS of -0.16 misses by 0.01

Price Density Drivers

The price of MBIA Stock is driven by buyer and seller positioning dynamics along with broader market trends. Because market risk indicators may produce small false signals, reviewing multiple metrics is recommended. Understanding MBIA's price drivers determines whether movements reflect underlying changes or positioning shifts.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding49.28 million
Cash And Short Term Investments1.52 billion

MBIA Fundamentals Growth

MBIA's financial fundamentals are the foundation of MBIA Stock market pricing and valuation. Metrics like earnings growth, revenue consistency, and margin trends collectively determine market sentiment toward MBIA Stock. MBIA Stock market pricing reflects the collective assessment of MBIA's financial fundamentals.

Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology

MBIA risk-adjusted performance measures whether returns compensate for the volatility borne by holders. Sharpe and Sortino ratios frame return efficiency relative to total and downside risk. MBIA shows ROA of 0.99% (TTM) vs -8.35% (last reported).

MBIA Inc analytics rely on periodic company reporting and market reference feeds, with quality checks and normalization applied. Sell-side coverage, where present, supplements the data shown. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.

Editorial review and methodology oversight provided by: Rifka Kats, Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board