MBank SA Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| MBK Stock | 549.40 11.00 1.96% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of mBank SA on the next trading day is expected to be 547.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 729.51. MBank Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
MBank |
MBank SA Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of mBank SA on the next trading day is expected to be 547.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.36, mean absolute percentage error of 240.76, and the sum of the absolute errors of 729.51.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MBank Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MBank SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MBank SA Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MBank SA | MBank SA Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
MBank SA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MBank SA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MBank SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 545.61 and 550.14, respectively. We have considered MBank SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MBank SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MBank SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 2.407 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 12.3645 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0205 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 729.5052 |
Predictive Modules for MBank SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as mBank SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MBank SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for MBank SA
For every potential investor in MBank, whether a beginner or expert, MBank SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MBank Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MBank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MBank SA's price trends.MBank SA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MBank SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MBank SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MBank SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
mBank SA Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of MBank SA's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of MBank SA's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MBank SA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MBank SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MBank SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MBank SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify mBank SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0324 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.60) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 558.6 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 555.53 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 18.4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (14.70) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (11.00) |
MBank SA Risk Indicators
The analysis of MBank SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MBank SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mbank stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.22 | |||
| Variance | 4.95 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with MBank SA
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if MBank SA position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in MBank SA will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with MBank Stock
Moving against MBank Stock
| 0.74 | UCG | UniCredit SpA | PairCorr |
| 0.73 | CEZ | CEZ as | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | DNP | Dino Polska SA | PairCorr |
| 0.45 | SAN | Banco Santander SA | PairCorr |
| 0.44 | JSW | Jastrzebska Spotka Earnings Call Today | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to MBank SA could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace MBank SA when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back MBank SA - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling mBank SA to buy it.
The correlation of MBank SA is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as MBank SA moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if mBank SA moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for MBank SA can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for MBank Stock Analysis
When running MBank SA's price analysis, check to measure MBank SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MBank SA is operating at the current time. Most of MBank SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MBank SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MBank SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MBank SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.