MICROCHIP TECH Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| MCP Stock | EUR 66.10 1.24 1.84% |
MICROCHIP Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although MICROCHIP TECH's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of MICROCHIP TECH's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of MICROCHIP TECH fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of MICROCHIP TECH's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using MICROCHIP TECH hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MICROCHIP TECH from the perspective of MICROCHIP TECH response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MICROCHIP TECH on the next trading day is expected to be 66.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 75.21. MICROCHIP TECH after-hype prediction price | EUR 67.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
MICROCHIP |
MICROCHIP TECH Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MICROCHIP price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MICROCHIP using various technical indicators. When you analyze MICROCHIP charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MICROCHIP TECH Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 16th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MICROCHIP TECH on the next trading day is expected to be 66.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.27, mean absolute percentage error of 2.80, and the sum of the absolute errors of 75.21.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MICROCHIP Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MICROCHIP TECH's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MICROCHIP TECH Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MICROCHIP TECH | MICROCHIP TECH Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
MICROCHIP TECH Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MICROCHIP TECH's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MICROCHIP TECH's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 63.43 and 69.03, respectively. We have considered MICROCHIP TECH's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MICROCHIP TECH stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MICROCHIP TECH stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1409 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2747 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0219 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 75.2058 |
Predictive Modules for MICROCHIP TECH
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MICROCHIP TECH. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MICROCHIP TECH After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MICROCHIP TECH at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MICROCHIP TECH or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MICROCHIP TECH, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MICROCHIP TECH Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MICROCHIP TECH's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MICROCHIP TECH's historical news coverage. MICROCHIP TECH's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 64.40 and 70.00, respectively. We have considered MICROCHIP TECH's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MICROCHIP TECH is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MICROCHIP TECH is based on 3 months time horizon.
MICROCHIP TECH Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MICROCHIP TECH is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MICROCHIP TECH backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MICROCHIP TECH, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.69 | 2.80 | 1.10 | 0.23 | 7 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
66.10 | 67.20 | 1.66 |
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MICROCHIP TECH Hype Timeline
MICROCHIP TECH is now traded for 66.10on Hamburg Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.23. MICROCHIP is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 67.2 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 175.0%. The price boost on the next news is expected to be 1.66%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.69%. The volatility of related hype on MICROCHIP TECH is about 856.27%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 65.87. The company reported the revenue of 4.4 B. Net Loss for the year was (500 K) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MICROCHIP TECH to cross-verify your projections.MICROCHIP TECH Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MICROCHIP TECH's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MICROCHIP TECH's future price movements. Getting to know how MICROCHIP TECH's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MICROCHIP TECH may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ABL | Abbott Laboratories | (1.21) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.91 | (2.11) | 14.56 | |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | (1.30) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.33 | (5.57) | 24.55 | |
| 4I1 | Philip Morris International | 0.44 | 3 per month | 1.19 | 0.16 | 2.89 | (2.55) | 7.67 | |
| W8V | BANK OF CHINA | 0.00 | 5 per month | 2.81 | 0.01 | 2.08 | (2.04) | 24.03 | |
| TOTB | TotalEnergies SE | 0.20 | 2 per month | 0.86 | 0.19 | 2.23 | (1.62) | 5.97 | |
| AMG | Amgen Inc | 4.91 | 8 per month | 1.57 | 0.08 | 3.98 | (2.86) | 10.70 | |
| HBC1 | HSBC HLDG | (0.06) | 3 per month | 1.30 | 0.12 | 2.99 | (2.05) | 8.75 | |
| HK2C | Hong Kong Exchanges | 0.02 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 1.49 | (1.47) | 5.73 | |
| SEH | SHIN ETSU CHEMICAL | (0.27) | 3 per month | 2.08 | 0.11 | 3.96 | (3.90) | 10.05 | |
| CFX | Capital One Financial | (6.00) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.43 | (6.04) | 12.64 |
Other Forecasting Options for MICROCHIP TECH
For every potential investor in MICROCHIP, whether a beginner or expert, MICROCHIP TECH's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MICROCHIP Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MICROCHIP. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MICROCHIP TECH's price trends.MICROCHIP TECH Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MICROCHIP TECH stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MICROCHIP TECH could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MICROCHIP TECH by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MICROCHIP TECH Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MICROCHIP TECH stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MICROCHIP TECH shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MICROCHIP TECH stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MICROCHIP TECH entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
MICROCHIP TECH Risk Indicators
The analysis of MICROCHIP TECH's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MICROCHIP TECH's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting microchip stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.82 | |||
| Variance | 7.94 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.9 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.56) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MICROCHIP TECH
The number of cover stories for MICROCHIP TECH depends on current market conditions and MICROCHIP TECH's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MICROCHIP TECH is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MICROCHIP TECH's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in MICROCHIP Stock
MICROCHIP TECH financial ratios help investors to determine whether MICROCHIP Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in MICROCHIP with respect to the benefits of owning MICROCHIP TECH security.