Mediaco Holding Stock Forward View
| MDIA Stock | USD 0.67 0 0.52% |
Mediaco Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Mediaco Holding stock prices and determine the direction of Mediaco Holding's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Mediaco Holding's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Mediaco Holding's share price is approaching 45. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Mediaco Holding, making its price go up or down. Momentum 45
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.186 |
Using Mediaco Holding hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mediaco Holding from the perspective of Mediaco Holding response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mediaco Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 0.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.39. Mediaco Holding after-hype prediction price | USD 0.66 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mediaco Holding to cross-verify your projections. Mediaco Holding Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Mediaco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mediaco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mediaco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Mediaco Holding Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Mediaco Holding's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2019-12-31 | Previous Quarter 2.9 M | Current Value 6.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 3.3 M |
Mediaco Holding Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mediaco Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 0.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0008, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.39.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mediaco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mediaco Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mediaco Holding Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Mediaco Holding | Mediaco Holding Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Mediaco Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Mediaco Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mediaco Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 4.78, respectively. We have considered Mediaco Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mediaco Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mediaco Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.9486 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0228 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0311 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.3901 |
Predictive Modules for Mediaco Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mediaco Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Mediaco Holding After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Mediaco Holding at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mediaco Holding or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Mediaco Holding, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Mediaco Holding Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Mediaco Holding's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mediaco Holding's historical news coverage. Mediaco Holding's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.03 and 4.85, respectively. We have considered Mediaco Holding's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Mediaco Holding is abnormally volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mediaco Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.
Mediaco Holding Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Mediaco Holding is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mediaco Holding backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mediaco Holding, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.53 | 4.19 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.67 | 0.66 | 1.49 |
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Mediaco Holding Hype Timeline
Mediaco Holding is now traded for 0.67. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Mediaco is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 0.66. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.49%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.53%. The volatility of related hype on Mediaco Holding is about 4384.88%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.72. About 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.63. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Mediaco Holding recorded a loss per share of 0.52. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mediaco Holding to cross-verify your projections.Mediaco Holding Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Mediaco Holding's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mediaco Holding's future price movements. Getting to know how Mediaco Holding's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mediaco Holding may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MNY | MoneyHero Limited Class | 0.19 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 9.76 | (5.76) | 39.95 | |
| TC | TuanChe ADR | 1.14 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 7.45 | (9.74) | 31.07 | |
| PODC | Courtside Group Common | (0.28) | 15 per month | 4.34 | 0.12 | 12.62 | (8.30) | 24.81 | |
| UONE | Urban One | 0.20 | 8 per month | 4.35 | 0.03 | 10.26 | (8.11) | 25.79 | |
| LVO | LiveOne | 0.02 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.13 | (7.32) | 20.00 | |
| BZFD | BuzzFeed | (0.05) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 6.67 | (7.14) | 37.49 | |
| NIPG | NIP Group American | (0.06) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 4.72 | (6.92) | 24.01 | |
| RDI | Reading International | (0.14) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 3.17 | (4.51) | 14.05 | |
| KYIV | Kyivstar Group Ltd | (0.16) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 7.07 | (5.81) | 20.31 |
Other Forecasting Options for Mediaco Holding
For every potential investor in Mediaco, whether a beginner or expert, Mediaco Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mediaco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mediaco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mediaco Holding's price trends.Mediaco Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mediaco Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mediaco Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mediaco Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mediaco Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mediaco Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mediaco Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mediaco Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mediaco Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Mediaco Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of Mediaco Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mediaco Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mediaco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.23 | |||
| Variance | 17.91 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Mediaco Holding
The number of cover stories for Mediaco Holding depends on current market conditions and Mediaco Holding's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mediaco Holding is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mediaco Holding's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Mediaco Holding Short Properties
Mediaco Holding's future price predictability will typically decrease when Mediaco Holding's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Mediaco Holding often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Mediaco Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mediaco Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 59.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mediaco Holding to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Mediaco Stock refer to our How to Trade Mediaco Stock guide.You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Is Movies & Entertainment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mediaco Holding. Expected growth trajectory for Mediaco significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Mediaco Holding assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Earnings Share (0.52) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.186 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Mediaco Holding's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Mediaco's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Mediaco Holding's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since Mediaco Holding's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Understanding that Mediaco Holding's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Mediaco Holding represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. However, Mediaco Holding's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.