Mayville Engineering Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MEC Stock | USD 21.64 0.43 2.03% |
Mayville Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Mayville Engineering stock prices and determine the direction of Mayville Engineering Co's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Mayville Engineering's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Mayville Engineering's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Mayville Engineering hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mayville Engineering Co from the perspective of Mayville Engineering response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mayville Engineering Co on the next trading day is expected to be 21.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.75. Mayville Engineering after-hype prediction price | USD 22.16 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mayville Engineering to cross-verify your projections. Mayville Engineering Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Mayville price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mayville using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mayville charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Mayville Engineering Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mayville Engineering Co on the next trading day is expected to be 21.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41, mean absolute percentage error of 0.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mayville Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mayville Engineering's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mayville Engineering Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Mayville Engineering | Mayville Engineering Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Mayville Engineering Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Mayville Engineering's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mayville Engineering's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.87 and 24.41, respectively. We have considered Mayville Engineering's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mayville Engineering stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mayville Engineering stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.9102 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0905 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4125 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0227 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.75 |
Predictive Modules for Mayville Engineering
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mayville Engineering. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mayville Engineering's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mayville Engineering After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Mayville Engineering at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mayville Engineering or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Mayville Engineering, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Mayville Engineering Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Mayville Engineering's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mayville Engineering's historical news coverage. Mayville Engineering's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.39 and 24.93, respectively. We have considered Mayville Engineering's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Mayville Engineering is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mayville Engineering is based on 3 months time horizon.
Mayville Engineering Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Mayville Engineering is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mayville Engineering backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mayville Engineering, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.51 | 2.77 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
21.64 | 22.16 | 2.40 |
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Mayville Engineering Hype Timeline
On the 11th of February 2026 Mayville Engineering is traded for 21.64. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Mayville is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 22.16 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 2.4%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.51%. The volatility of related hype on Mayville Engineering is about 9551.72%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.65. Mayville Engineering Co has 110.05 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.51, which is OK given its current industry classification. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mayville Engineering to cross-verify your projections.Mayville Engineering Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Mayville Engineering's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mayville Engineering's future price movements. Getting to know how Mayville Engineering's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mayville Engineering may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MTW | Manitowoc | 0.19 | 10 per month | 1.76 | 0.15 | 4.54 | (2.88) | 9.01 | |
| LXFR | Luxfer Holdings PLC | 0.27 | 7 per month | 1.03 | 0.19 | 2.92 | (2.51) | 6.05 | |
| JELD | Jeld Wen Holding | (0.03) | 10 per month | 4.41 | 0.03 | 9.36 | (10.14) | 31.31 | |
| PANL | Pangaea Logistic | (0.08) | 9 per month | 1.52 | 0.23 | 7.93 | (3.68) | 22.74 | |
| KNOP | KNOT Offshore Partners | 0.1 | 8 per month | 1.29 | (0) | 4.00 | (2.13) | 8.88 | |
| GWAV | Greenwave Technology Solutions | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 12.20 | (10.02) | 27.97 | |
| ASLE | AerSale Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.31 | 0.13 | 2.92 | (2.77) | 6.61 | |
| SPIR | Spire Global | 0.00 | 0 per month | 6.18 | 0.07 | 8.45 | (7.34) | 31.88 | |
| SBC | SBC Communications | (0.10) | 10 per month | 2.25 | 0.17 | 7.42 | (3.77) | 17.06 | |
| HSHP | Himalaya Shipping | (0.06) | 12 per month | 1.60 | 0.27 | 4.73 | (2.77) | 12.50 |
Other Forecasting Options for Mayville Engineering
For every potential investor in Mayville, whether a beginner or expert, Mayville Engineering's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mayville Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mayville. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mayville Engineering's price trends.Mayville Engineering Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mayville Engineering stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mayville Engineering could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mayville Engineering by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mayville Engineering Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mayville Engineering stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mayville Engineering shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mayville Engineering stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mayville Engineering Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 10428.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.3258 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 21.16 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 21.32 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.7 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.43 |
Mayville Engineering Risk Indicators
The analysis of Mayville Engineering's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mayville Engineering's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mayville stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.95 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.77 | |||
| Variance | 7.7 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.9 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.79 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.02) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Mayville Engineering
The number of cover stories for Mayville Engineering depends on current market conditions and Mayville Engineering's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mayville Engineering is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mayville Engineering's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Mayville Engineering Short Properties
Mayville Engineering's future price predictability will typically decrease when Mayville Engineering's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Mayville Engineering Co often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Mayville Engineering's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mayville Engineering's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 21 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 206 K |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mayville Engineering to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.
Will Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components sector continue expanding? Could Mayville diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mayville Engineering. Expected growth trajectory for Mayville significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Mayville Engineering data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Investors evaluate Mayville Engineering using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Mayville Engineering's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Mayville Engineering's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Mayville Engineering's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Mayville Engineering represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Mayville Engineering's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.