Manulife Financial Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| MFC Stock | CAD 50.71 0.18 0.35% |
Manulife Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, The relative strength indicator of Manulife Financial's share price is at 56. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Manulife Financial, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
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Oversold | Overbought |
Using Manulife Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Manulife Financial Corp from the perspective of Manulife Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Manulife Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 50.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.97. Manulife Financial after-hype prediction price | CAD 50.71 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Manulife |
Manulife Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Manulife price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Manulife using various technical indicators. When you analyze Manulife charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Manulife Financial Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Manulife Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 50.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42, mean absolute percentage error of 0.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.97.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Manulife Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Manulife Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Manulife Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
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Manulife Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Manulife Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Manulife Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 49.69 and 51.79, respectively. We have considered Manulife Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Manulife Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Manulife Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1022 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4232 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0086 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.9663 |
Predictive Modules for Manulife Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Manulife Financial Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Manulife Financial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Manulife Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Manulife Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Manulife Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Manulife Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Manulife Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Manulife Financial's historical news coverage. Manulife Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 49.66 and 51.76, respectively. We have considered Manulife Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Manulife Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Manulife Financial Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Manulife Financial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Manulife Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Manulife Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Manulife Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
50.71 | 50.71 | 0.00 |
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Manulife Financial Hype Timeline
Manulife Financial Corp is now traded for 50.71on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Manulife is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.21%. %. The volatility of related hype on Manulife Financial is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 50.71. About 56.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.9. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Manulife Financial Corp has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.78. The entity last dividend was issued on the 26th of November 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 23rd of May 2006. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Manulife Financial to cross-verify your projections.Manulife Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Manulife Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Manulife Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Manulife Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Manulife Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GWO | Great West Lifeco | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.60 | 0.10 | 1.46 | (1.38) | 4.62 | |
| POW | Power | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.87 | 0.06 | 1.75 | (1.53) | 5.02 | |
| NA | National Bank of | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.54 | 0.05 | 1.42 | (1.09) | 3.54 | |
| SLF | Sun Life Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.17 | (0.07) | 1.36 | (1.59) | 5.04 | |
| FFH | Fairfax Financial Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.49 | (0.01) | 2.18 | (2.30) | 9.94 | |
| PWF-PZ | Power Financial Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.43 | (0.15) | 0.91 | (0.79) | 2.58 | |
| IFC | Intact Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.69 | (1.77) | 6.91 |
Other Forecasting Options for Manulife Financial
For every potential investor in Manulife, whether a beginner or expert, Manulife Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Manulife Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Manulife. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Manulife Financial's price trends.Manulife Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Manulife Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Manulife Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Manulife Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Manulife Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Manulife Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Manulife Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Manulife Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Manulife Financial Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 106186.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.26) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 51.03 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 50.92 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.41) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.18) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 56.58 |
Manulife Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Manulife Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Manulife Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting manulife stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8075 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7747 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Variance | 1.1 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.11 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6001 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.88) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Manulife Financial
The number of cover stories for Manulife Financial depends on current market conditions and Manulife Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Manulife Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Manulife Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Manulife Financial Short Properties
Manulife Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Manulife Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Manulife Financial Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Manulife Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Manulife Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.8 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 25.8 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Manulife Financial to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.