Maple Leaf Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MFI Stock | CAD 27.03 0.33 1.21% |
Maple Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Maple Leaf's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Maple Leaf's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Maple Leaf fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Maple Leaf's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.339 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.355 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.0719 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.4655 | Wall Street Target Price 34 |
Using Maple Leaf hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Maple Leaf Foods from the perspective of Maple Leaf response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Maple Leaf Foods on the next trading day is expected to be 27.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.98. Maple Leaf after-hype prediction price | CAD 27.28 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Maple |
Maple Leaf Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Maple price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Maple using various technical indicators. When you analyze Maple charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Maple Leaf Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 11th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Maple Leaf Foods on the next trading day is expected to be 27.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.98.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Maple Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Maple Leaf's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Maple Leaf Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Maple Leaf | Maple Leaf Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Maple Leaf Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Maple Leaf's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Maple Leaf's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.74 and 28.32, respectively. We have considered Maple Leaf's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Maple Leaf stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Maple Leaf stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.0783 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0643 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2663 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0105 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.98 |
Predictive Modules for Maple Leaf
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Maple Leaf Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Maple Leaf After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Maple Leaf at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Maple Leaf or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Maple Leaf, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Maple Leaf Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Maple Leaf's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Maple Leaf's historical news coverage. Maple Leaf's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.99 and 28.57, respectively. We have considered Maple Leaf's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Maple Leaf is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Maple Leaf Foods is based on 3 months time horizon.
Maple Leaf Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Maple Leaf is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Maple Leaf backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Maple Leaf, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 1.29 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 6 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
27.03 | 27.28 | 0.29 |
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Maple Leaf Hype Timeline
Maple Leaf Foods is now traded for 27.03on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.09. Maple is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 27.28. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -0.29%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.25%. The volatility of related hype on Maple Leaf is about 357.09%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 26.94. About 39.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Maple Leaf was now reported as 13.13. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.59. Maple Leaf Foods last dividend was issued on the 9th of March 2026. The entity had 1125:1000 split on the 2nd of October 2025. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Maple Leaf to cross-verify your projections.Maple Leaf Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Maple Leaf's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Maple Leaf's future price movements. Getting to know how Maple Leaf's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Maple Leaf may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PBH | Premium Brands Holdings | (0.50) | 8 per month | 1.64 | 0.01 | 2.93 | (2.29) | 11.56 | |
| JWEL | Jamieson Wellness | 0.05 | 6 per month | 0.76 | 0.03 | 2.56 | (1.43) | 4.77 | |
| NWC | North West | 0.26 | 5 per month | 1.08 | 0.09 | 2.30 | (1.74) | 7.13 | |
| HLF | High Liner Foods | 0.02 | 7 per month | 2.95 | (0.04) | 1.90 | (1.58) | 13.30 | |
| LAS-A | Lassonde Industries | (2.99) | 8 per month | 1.23 | 0.01 | 2.30 | (2.29) | 10.30 | |
| BU | Burcon NutraScience | 0.09 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 7.65 | (6.36) | 17.35 | |
| SOY | SunOpta | 0.16 | 7 per month | 5.00 | 0.05 | 6.35 | (3.86) | 26.08 | |
| BABY | Else Nutrition Holdings | 0.02 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 20.00 | (14.29) | 42.66 |
Other Forecasting Options for Maple Leaf
For every potential investor in Maple, whether a beginner or expert, Maple Leaf's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Maple Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Maple. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Maple Leaf's price trends.Maple Leaf Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Maple Leaf stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Maple Leaf could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Maple Leaf by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Maple Leaf Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Maple Leaf stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Maple Leaf shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Maple Leaf stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Maple Leaf Foods entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 2213.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.85) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 27.15 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 27.11 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.28) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.33) |
Maple Leaf Risk Indicators
The analysis of Maple Leaf's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Maple Leaf's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting maple stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Variance | 1.96 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.65 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.22 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.28) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Maple Leaf
The number of cover stories for Maple Leaf depends on current market conditions and Maple Leaf's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Maple Leaf is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Maple Leaf's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Maple Leaf Short Properties
Maple Leaf's future price predictability will typically decrease when Maple Leaf's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Maple Leaf Foods often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Maple Leaf's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Maple Leaf's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 124.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 175.9 M |
Other Information on Investing in Maple Stock
Maple Leaf financial ratios help investors to determine whether Maple Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Maple with respect to the benefits of owning Maple Leaf security.