Medallion Financial Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| MFIN Stock | USD 10.26 0.11 1.08% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Medallion Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 10.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.56. Medallion Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Medallion Financial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Medallion Financial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Medallion Financial fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength indicator of Medallion Financial's share price is at 51. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Medallion Financial, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.28 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.68 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.48 | Wall Street Target Price 12 |
Using Medallion Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Medallion Financial Corp from the perspective of Medallion Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Medallion Financial using Medallion Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Medallion using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Medallion Financial's stock price.
Medallion Financial Implied Volatility | 1.3 |
Medallion Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Medallion Financial Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Medallion Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Medallion Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Medallion Financial's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Medallion Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 10.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.56. Medallion Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 10.26 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Medallion contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Medallion Financial Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0813% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Medallion Financial trading at USD 10.26, that is roughly USD 0.008336 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Medallion Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Medallion Financial Corp options at the current volatility level of 1.3%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Medallion Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Medallion Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Medallion Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Medallion Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Medallion Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Medallion Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Medallion Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Medallion. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Medallion Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Medallion price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Medallion using various technical indicators. When you analyze Medallion charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Medallion Financial Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Medallion Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 10.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Medallion Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Medallion Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Medallion Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Medallion Financial | Medallion Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Medallion Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Medallion Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Medallion Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.53 and 12.40, respectively. We have considered Medallion Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Medallion Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Medallion Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.5659 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2348 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0233 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.5551 |
Predictive Modules for Medallion Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Medallion Financial Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Medallion Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Medallion Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Medallion Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Medallion Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Medallion Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Medallion Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Medallion Financial's historical news coverage. Medallion Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.34 and 12.18, respectively. We have considered Medallion Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Medallion Financial is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Medallion Financial Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Medallion Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Medallion Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Medallion Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Medallion Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 1.93 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 11 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
10.26 | 10.26 | 0.00 |
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Medallion Financial Hype Timeline
Medallion Financial Corp is now traded for 10.26. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Medallion is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on Medallion Financial is about 1155.69%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.24. About 31.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.6. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Medallion Financial Corp has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.41. The entity last dividend was issued on the 12th of November 2025. The firm had 101:100 split on the August 22, 2014. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Medallion Financial to cross-verify your projections.Medallion Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Medallion Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Medallion Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Medallion Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Medallion Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| YRD | Yirendai | (0.41) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 3.77 | (3.75) | 13.29 | |
| FOA | Finance of America | (0.63) | 14 per month | 2.23 | 0.03 | 3.36 | (4.10) | 12.15 | |
| LPRO | Open Lending Corp | 0.72 | 6 per month | 4.14 | 0.01 | 8.50 | (5.69) | 22.07 | |
| OPRT | Oportun Financial Corp | (0.63) | 2 per month | 2.57 | 0.05 | 3.77 | (4.29) | 14.40 | |
| LIEN | Chicago Atlantic BDC | 0.09 | 5 per month | 1.40 | 0.02 | 2.70 | (1.71) | 7.58 | |
| TPVG | Triplepoint Venture Growth | 0.05 | 11 per month | 1.44 | 0.15 | 2.51 | (2.58) | 8.89 | |
| CPSS | Consumer Portfolio Services | (0.63) | 30 per month | 2.64 | (0.01) | 5.15 | (4.17) | 16.69 | |
| SSSS | SuRo Capital Corp | 0.06 | 9 per month | 1.91 | 0.01 | 3.89 | (3.42) | 17.41 | |
| SUIG | SUI Group Holdings | (0.08) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 13.06 | (11.23) | 29.10 | |
| OVLY | Oak Valley Bancorp | (0.21) | 8 per month | 0.67 | 0.17 | 3.09 | (1.49) | 6.11 |
Other Forecasting Options for Medallion Financial
For every potential investor in Medallion, whether a beginner or expert, Medallion Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Medallion Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Medallion. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Medallion Financial's price trends.Medallion Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Medallion Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Medallion Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Medallion Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Medallion Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Medallion Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Medallion Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Medallion Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Medallion Financial Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Medallion Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Medallion Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Medallion Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting medallion stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Variance | 3.73 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.98 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.54 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.73) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Medallion Financial
The number of cover stories for Medallion Financial depends on current market conditions and Medallion Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Medallion Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Medallion Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Medallion Financial Short Properties
Medallion Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Medallion Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Medallion Financial Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Medallion Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Medallion Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 101.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Medallion Financial to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Is Consumer Finance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Medallion Financial. If investors know Medallion will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Medallion Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | Dividend Share 0.46 | Earnings Share 1.73 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.089 |
The market value of Medallion Financial Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Medallion that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Medallion Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Medallion Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Medallion Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Medallion Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Medallion Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Medallion Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Medallion Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.