Magnolia Oil Stock Forward View - 4 Period Moving Average

MGY Stock

USD 29.24 -0.38 -1.28%

Magnolia Oil's 4 Period Moving Average forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The 4 Period Moving Average model projects Magnolia Oil at 29.35 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. The 4 Period Moving Average output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.

The four-period moving average forecast for Magnolia Oil Gas replaces each daily value with the mean of that value and the four preceding closing prices. This smoothing window is wide enough to dampen short-term noise while still responding to recent price shifts in Magnolia Oil.

4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 27th of April

Over a 90-day horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average model forecasts Magnolia Oil at 29.35 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 36.67 .

This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Magnolia Oil's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Magnolia Oil

Magnolia Oil Price Prediction

Research Analysis

Forecasted Value

The projected range for Magnolia Oil reflects the model's ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios for the next trading day. Downside is estimated near 27.37 and upside near 31.33. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.

Market Value

29.24

27.37

Downside

29.35

Expected Value

31.33

Upside

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the 4 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for Magnolia Oil stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	110.195
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	-0.1815
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	0.6433
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0222
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	36.67

The model is suited for higher-volatility price series where a two-period average would be too reactive. It does not extrapolate a trend equation, so its forecasting utility is limited to one or two periods ahead. Tighter error metrics (lower MAD/MAPE) indicate that Magnolia Oil price movement is well-captured by this smoothing window.

Other Forecasting Options for Magnolia Oil

Analyzing Magnolia Oil's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in Magnolia Oil's chart signal overbought or oversold conditions.

Magnolia Oil Related Equities

Magnolia Oil's market space within the Energy space is illustrated by the firms listed below. Looking at Magnolia Oil's pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount. When Magnolia Oil breaks from its peer group on a key metric, it often signals a firm-level change worth exploring.

Murphy Oil California Resources Corp Valaris Valvoline Matador Resources Ultrapar Participacoes SA CNX Resources Corp Archrock PBF Energy Vista Oil Gas American Airlines Group Alcoa Corp Apple Inc Best Buy Co Citigroup

Risk & Return

Correlation

Magnolia Oil Market Strength Events

For investors tracking Magnolia Oil Gas, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in Magnolia Oil.

	Accumulation Distribution	0.0152
	Daily Balance Of Power	-0.84
	Rate Of Daily Change	0.99
	Day Median Price	29.38
	Day Typical Price	29.33
	Market Facilitation Index	0.45
	Price Action Indicator	-0.33
	Period Momentum Indicator	-0.38
	Relative Strength Index	51.85

Magnolia Oil Risk Indicators

Analyzing Magnolia Oil's basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for magnolia stock. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for Magnolia Oil.

	Mean Deviation	1.5
	Semi Deviation	2.11
	Standard Deviation	1.96
	Variance	3.84
	Downside Variance	5.89
	Semi Variance	4.44
	Expected Short fall	-1.50

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Magnolia Oil Short Properties

Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Magnolia Oil is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. This is applicable when the question is whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.

	Common Stock Shares Outstanding	185.6 M
	Cash And Short Term Investments	266.8 M

	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average