Mitek Systems Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| MITK Stock | USD 12.39 0.64 4.91% |
Mitek Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The relative strength indicator of Mitek Systems' share price is at 50. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Mitek Systems, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Mitek Systems hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mitek Systems from the perspective of Mitek Systems response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Mitek Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 12.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.20. Mitek Systems after-hype prediction price | USD 12.41 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mitek Systems to cross-verify your projections. Mitek Systems Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Mitek price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mitek using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mitek charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Mitek Systems Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Mitek Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 12.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53, mean absolute percentage error of 0.51, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.20.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mitek Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mitek Systems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mitek Systems Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Mitek Systems | Mitek Systems Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Mitek Systems Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Mitek Systems' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mitek Systems' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.87 and 16.15, respectively. We have considered Mitek Systems' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mitek Systems stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mitek Systems stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.4336 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5278 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0489 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 32.1987 |
Predictive Modules for Mitek Systems
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mitek Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mitek Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mitek Systems After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Mitek Systems at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mitek Systems or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Mitek Systems, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Mitek Systems Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Mitek Systems' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mitek Systems' historical news coverage. Mitek Systems' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.27 and 16.55, respectively. We have considered Mitek Systems' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Mitek Systems is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mitek Systems is based on 3 months time horizon.
Mitek Systems Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Mitek Systems is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mitek Systems backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mitek Systems, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.60 | 4.14 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.39 | 12.41 | 0.16 |
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Mitek Systems Hype Timeline
Mitek Systems is now traded for 12.39. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.08. Mitek is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 12.41 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.16%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.6%. The volatility of related hype on Mitek Systems is about 3184.62%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.31. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 179.69 M. Net Income was 8.8 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 157.43 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mitek Systems to cross-verify your projections.Mitek Systems Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Mitek Systems' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mitek Systems' future price movements. Getting to know how Mitek Systems' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mitek Systems may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EGAN | eGain | (0.22) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.87 | (4.14) | 14.43 | |
| PUBM | Pubmatic | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 3.34 | (4.20) | 11.51 | |
| MTLS | Materialise NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 6.48 | (4.42) | 17.57 | |
| LAW | CS Disco LLC | 0.12 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 6.96 | (12.11) | 28.65 | |
| RMNI | Rimini Street | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.81 | (3.53) | 9.53 | |
| CMRC | Commerce | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 2.75 | (9.12) | 22.54 | |
| IMXI | International Money Express | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 0.39 | (0.19) | 1.11 | |
| GRRR | Gorilla Technology Group | 0.13 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 9.43 | (7.66) | 24.43 | |
| CRNC | Cerence | (1.40) | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 8.14 | (5.48) | 38.04 | |
| OSPN | OneSpan | 0.03 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.63 | (5.10) | 10.34 |
Other Forecasting Options for Mitek Systems
For every potential investor in Mitek, whether a beginner or expert, Mitek Systems' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mitek Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mitek. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mitek Systems' price trends.Mitek Systems Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mitek Systems stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mitek Systems could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mitek Systems by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mitek Systems Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mitek Systems stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mitek Systems shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mitek Systems stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mitek Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 28914.26 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.93) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.95 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.58 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.51 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.50) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.64) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 50.42 |
Mitek Systems Risk Indicators
The analysis of Mitek Systems' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mitek Systems' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mitek stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.38 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.09 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.14 | |||
| Variance | 17.13 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.6 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.36 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.97) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Mitek Systems
The number of cover stories for Mitek Systems depends on current market conditions and Mitek Systems' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mitek Systems is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mitek Systems' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Mitek Systems Short Properties
Mitek Systems' future price predictability will typically decrease when Mitek Systems' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Mitek Systems often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Mitek Systems' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mitek Systems' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 46.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 193 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mitek Systems to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Mitek Stock please use our How to buy in Mitek Stock guide.You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mitek Systems. Expected growth trajectory for Mitek significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Mitek Systems assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
The market value of Mitek Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mitek that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mitek Systems' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mitek Systems' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mitek Systems' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mitek Systems' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Mitek Systems' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Mitek Systems represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, Mitek Systems' quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.