Merchants National Pink Sheet Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| MNPP Stock | USD 2,100 0.00 0.00% |
Merchants Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Merchants National's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Merchants National hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Merchants National Properties from the perspective of Merchants National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Merchants National Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 2,100 with a mean absolute deviation of 15.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 913.74. Merchants National after-hype prediction price | USD 2100.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Merchants |
Merchants National Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Merchants price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Merchants using various technical indicators. When you analyze Merchants charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Merchants National Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Merchants National Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 2,100 with a mean absolute deviation of 15.49, mean absolute percentage error of 1,283, and the sum of the absolute errors of 913.74.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Merchants Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Merchants National's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Merchants National Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Merchants National | Merchants National Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Merchants National Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Merchants National's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Merchants National's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2,098 and 2,102, respectively. We have considered Merchants National's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Merchants National pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Merchants National pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -3.2754 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 15.4871 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0079 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 913.7367 |
Predictive Modules for Merchants National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merchants National. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Merchants National After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Merchants National at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Merchants National or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Merchants National, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Merchants National Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Merchants National's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Merchants National's historical news coverage. Merchants National's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2,098 and 2,102, respectively. We have considered Merchants National's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Merchants National is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Merchants National is based on 3 months time horizon.
Merchants National Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Merchants National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Merchants National backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Merchants National, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 1.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2,100 | 2,100 | 0.00 |
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Merchants National Hype Timeline
Merchants National is now traded for 2,100. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Merchants is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.14%. %. The volatility of related hype on Merchants National is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2,100. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 131.32. Merchants National last dividend was issued on the 20th of December 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Merchants National to cross-verify your projections.Merchants National Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Merchants National's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Merchants National's future price movements. Getting to know how Merchants National's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Merchants National may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DDCCF | DIC Asset AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.48 | 0.01 | 3.50 | (3.94) | 13.87 | |
| FRTCF | Far East Consortium | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.84 | |
| RNHEF | China Dili Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| SIUDF | Shanghai Industrial Urban | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 294.25 | |
| LVSDF | Lai Sun Development | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| DLMI | Diamond Lake Minerals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 49.89 | |
| SDWHF | Soundwill Holdings Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| SYYNY | SYN prop e | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.63 | 0.04 | 5.40 | (4.26) | 19.96 | |
| FRMUF | Firm Capital Property | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.70 | 0.06 | 2.06 | (1.40) | 6.78 | |
| SHMSF | Shimao Services Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Merchants National
For every potential investor in Merchants, whether a beginner or expert, Merchants National's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Merchants Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Merchants. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Merchants National's price trends.Merchants National Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Merchants National pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Merchants National could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Merchants National by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Merchants National Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Merchants National pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Merchants National shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Merchants National pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Merchants National Properties entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2100.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2100.0 |
Merchants National Risk Indicators
The analysis of Merchants National's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Merchants National's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting merchants pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8478 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.84 | |||
| Variance | 3.38 | |||
| Downside Variance | 17.44 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.18 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.45) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Merchants National
The number of cover stories for Merchants National depends on current market conditions and Merchants National's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Merchants National is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Merchants National's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Merchants National Short Properties
Merchants National's future price predictability will typically decrease when Merchants National's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Merchants National Properties often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Merchants National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Merchants National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Dividend Yield | 0.0444 | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 70 | |
| Shares Float | 43 K |
Additional Tools for Merchants Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Merchants National's price analysis, check to measure Merchants National's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Merchants National is operating at the current time. Most of Merchants National's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Merchants National's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Merchants National's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Merchants National to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.