Merchants National Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| MNPP Stock | USD 1,750 38.00 2.22% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Merchants National Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 1,750 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 194.00. Merchants Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Merchants |
Merchants National Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Merchants National Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 1,750 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.29, mean absolute percentage error of 80.66, and the sum of the absolute errors of 194.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Merchants Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Merchants National's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Merchants National Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Merchants National | Merchants National Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Merchants National Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Merchants National's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Merchants National's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,749 and 1,751, respectively. We have considered Merchants National's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Merchants National pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Merchants National pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.825 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.2712 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.2881 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0019 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 194.0 |
Predictive Modules for Merchants National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merchants National. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Merchants National
For every potential investor in Merchants, whether a beginner or expert, Merchants National's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Merchants Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Merchants. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Merchants National's price trends.Merchants National Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Merchants National pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Merchants National could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Merchants National by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Merchants National Technical and Predictive Analytics
The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Merchants National's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Merchants National's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Merchants National Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Merchants National pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Merchants National shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Merchants National pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Merchants National Properties entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1750.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1750.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 19.0 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 38.0 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 93.64 |
Merchants National Risk Indicators
The analysis of Merchants National's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Merchants National's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting merchants pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.2682 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4031 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.6463 | |||
| Variance | 0.4177 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.2 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1625 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.50) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Merchants National
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Merchants National position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Merchants National will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Merchants Pink Sheet
| 0.57 | HLDVF | Henderson Land | PairCorr |
| 0.34 | DIFTY | Daito Trust Construction | PairCorr |
| 0.33 | MTSFY | Mitsui Fudosan | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Merchants National could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Merchants National when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Merchants National - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Merchants National Properties to buy it.
The correlation of Merchants National is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Merchants National moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Merchants National moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Merchants National can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Merchants Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Merchants National's price analysis, check to measure Merchants National's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Merchants National is operating at the current time. Most of Merchants National's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Merchants National's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Merchants National's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Merchants National to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.