Monro Muffler Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

MNRO Stock  USD 21.00  0.15  0.72%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Monro Muffler Brake on the next trading day is expected to be 21.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.72. Monro Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Monro Muffler's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Monro Muffler's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Monro Muffler fundamentals over time.
As of today the value of rsi of Monro Muffler's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Monro Muffler's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Monro Muffler Brake, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Monro Muffler's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.001
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.2
EPS Estimate Current Year
0.558
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.69
Wall Street Target Price
20.6667
Using Monro Muffler hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Monro Muffler Brake from the perspective of Monro Muffler response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Monro Muffler using Monro Muffler's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Monro using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Monro Muffler's stock price.

Monro Muffler Short Interest

An investor who is long Monro Muffler may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Monro Muffler and may potentially protect profits, hedge Monro Muffler with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
16.7196
Short Percent
0.2425
Short Ratio
7.99
Shares Short Prior Month
5.7 M
50 Day MA
19.62

Monro Muffler Brake Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Monro Muffler's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Monro. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Monro can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Monro Muffler Brake. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.

Monro Muffler Implied Volatility

    
  1.03  
Monro Muffler's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Monro Muffler Brake stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Monro Muffler's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Monro Muffler stock will not fluctuate a lot when Monro Muffler's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Monro Muffler Brake on the next trading day is expected to be 21.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.72.

Monro Muffler after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 20.91  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Monro Muffler to cross-verify your projections.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Monro contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Monro Muffler Brake will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0644% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Monro Muffler trading at USD 21.0, that is roughly USD 0.0135 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Monro Muffler's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Monro Muffler Brake options at the current volatility level of 1.03%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Monro Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Monro Muffler's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Monro Muffler's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Monro Muffler stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Monro Muffler's open interest, investors have to compare it to Monro Muffler's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Monro Muffler is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Monro. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Monro Muffler Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Monro price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Monro using various technical indicators. When you analyze Monro charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Monro Muffler simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Monro Muffler Brake are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Monro Muffler Brake prices get older.

Monro Muffler Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Monro Muffler Brake on the next trading day is expected to be 21.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43, mean absolute percentage error of 0.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.72.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Monro Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Monro Muffler's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Monro Muffler Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Monro MufflerMonro Muffler Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Monro Muffler Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Monro Muffler's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Monro Muffler's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.23 and 24.77, respectively. We have considered Monro Muffler's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
21.00
21.00
Expected Value
24.77
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Monro Muffler stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Monro Muffler stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.4445
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0523
MADMean absolute deviation0.4287
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0235
SAESum of the absolute errors25.72
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Monro Muffler Brake forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Monro Muffler observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Monro Muffler

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Monro Muffler Brake. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
17.1420.9124.68
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
16.2920.0623.83
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
19.0620.4221.77
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
18.8120.6722.94
Details

Monro Muffler After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Monro Muffler at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Monro Muffler or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Monro Muffler, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Monro Muffler Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Monro Muffler's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Monro Muffler's historical news coverage. Monro Muffler's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.14 and 24.68, respectively. We have considered Monro Muffler's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
21.00
20.91
After-hype Price
24.68
Upside
Monro Muffler is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Monro Muffler Brake is based on 3 months time horizon.

Monro Muffler Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Monro Muffler is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Monro Muffler backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Monro Muffler, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.34 
3.77
  0.09 
  0.08 
11 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 11 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
21.00
20.91
0.43 
1,450  
Notes

Monro Muffler Hype Timeline

Monro Muffler Brake is now traded for 21.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.08. Monro is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 20.91. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.43%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.34%. The volatility of related hype on Monro Muffler is about 1604.26%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.92. About 19.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.04. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Monro Muffler Brake has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.05. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.69. The firm last dividend was issued on the 2nd of December 2025. Monro Muffler had 3:2 split on the 27th of December 2010. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 11 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Monro Muffler to cross-verify your projections.

Monro Muffler Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Monro Muffler's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Monro Muffler's future price movements. Getting to know how Monro Muffler's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Monro Muffler may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
INVZInnoviz Technologies(0.04)9 per month 0.00 (0.17) 6.14 (7.48) 34.74 
MLRMiller Industries(0.19)10 per month 1.88 (0.03) 2.66 (2.49) 7.96 
AIIORoboai Inc(0.05)5 per month 0.00 (0.20) 8.62 (16.18) 75.86 
HYLNHyliion Holdings Corp(0.08)8 per month 4.76  0.03  6.19 (7.17) 20.27 
VENUVenu Holding(0.46)9 per month 0.00 (0.07) 7.95 (9.64) 28.28 
CPSCooper Stnd(1.34)12 per month 3.93 (0.01) 6.66 (5.11) 26.95 
KFSKingsway Financial Services(0.33)9 per month 0.00 (0.06) 4.13 (4.33) 20.86 
PACKRanpak Holdings Corp(0.05)10 per month 4.12  0.03  5.36 (4.59) 24.45 
HLLYHolley Inc 0.14 7 per month 1.81  0.12  5.51 (3.70) 38.65 
ZKHZKH Group Limited 0.05 6 per month 2.71  0.07  6.38 (3.63) 25.66 

Other Forecasting Options for Monro Muffler

For every potential investor in Monro, whether a beginner or expert, Monro Muffler's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Monro Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Monro. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Monro Muffler's price trends.

Monro Muffler Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Monro Muffler stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Monro Muffler could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Monro Muffler by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Monro Muffler Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Monro Muffler stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Monro Muffler shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Monro Muffler stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Monro Muffler Brake entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Monro Muffler Risk Indicators

The analysis of Monro Muffler's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Monro Muffler's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting monro stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Monro Muffler

The number of cover stories for Monro Muffler depends on current market conditions and Monro Muffler's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Monro Muffler is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Monro Muffler's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Monro Muffler Short Properties

Monro Muffler's future price predictability will typically decrease when Monro Muffler's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Monro Muffler Brake often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Monro Muffler's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Monro Muffler's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding29.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments20.8 M
When determining whether Monro Muffler Brake offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Monro Muffler's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Monro Muffler Brake Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Monro Muffler Brake Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Monro Muffler to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Is Automotive Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Monro Muffler. If investors know Monro will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Monro Muffler listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.001
Dividend Share
1.12
Earnings Share
(0.69)
Revenue Per Share
39.735
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.04)
The market value of Monro Muffler Brake is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Monro that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Monro Muffler's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Monro Muffler's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Monro Muffler's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Monro Muffler's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Monro Muffler's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Monro Muffler is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Monro Muffler's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.