MODG Old Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| MODGDelisted Stock | USD 14.68 0.07 0.47% |
MODG Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of MODG Old's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The value of RSI of MODG Old's share price is above 70 as of 26th of January 2026. This indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling MODG, making its price go up or down. Momentum 70
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using MODG Old hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MODG Old from the perspective of MODG Old response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MODG Old on the next trading day is expected to be 14.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.41. MODG Old after-hype prediction price | $ 14.68 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
MODG |
MODG Old Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MODG price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MODG using various technical indicators. When you analyze MODG charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MODG Old Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MODG Old on the next trading day is expected to be 14.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.41.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MODG Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MODG Old's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MODG Old Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MODG Old | MODG Old Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MODG Old stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MODG Old stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0405 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.346 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0315 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.4143 |
Predictive Modules for MODG Old
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MODG Old. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MODG Old's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MODG Old After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MODG Old at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MODG Old or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MODG Old, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MODG Old Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MODG Old's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MODG Old's historical news coverage. MODG Old's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.65 and 18.71, respectively. We have considered MODG Old's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MODG Old is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MODG Old is based on 3 months time horizon.
MODG Old Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MODG Old is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MODG Old backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Delisted Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MODG Old, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.78 | 4.03 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
14.68 | 14.68 | 0.00 |
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MODG Old Hype Timeline
MODG Old is now traded for 14.68. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.1. MODG is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.78%. %. The volatility of related hype on MODG Old is about 3007.46%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.78. About 12.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.05. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. MODG Old has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.67. The entity recorded a loss per share of 8.19. The firm last dividend was issued on the 26th of May 2020. MODG Old had 2:1 split on the 13th of March 1995. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in small area income & poverty estimates.MODG Old Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MODG Old's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MODG Old's future price movements. Getting to know how MODG Old's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MODG Old may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PSNY | Polestar Automotive Holding | 0.40 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 12.04 | (14.88) | 34.99 | |
| FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | (0.94) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.52 | (6.75) | 27.50 | |
| KSS | Kohls | 0.08 | 11 per month | 3.23 | 0.03 | 5.38 | (5.71) | 49.53 | |
| OSW | OneSpaWorld Holdings | (0.08) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.69 | (2.86) | 10.62 | |
| OI | O I Glass | 0.40 | 13 per month | 1.78 | 0.12 | 4.16 | (3.38) | 18.50 | |
| MCRI | Monarch Casino Resort | 0.68 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.59 | (2.00) | 5.01 | |
| WEN | The Wendys Co | (0.39) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 4.07 | (4.04) | 11.11 | |
| BLBD | Blue Bird Corp | 0.87 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.18 | (3.51) | 12.97 | |
| LUCK | Lucky Strike Entertainment | 0.32 | 8 per month | 2.70 | (0.02) | 3.99 | (3.70) | 13.70 | |
| SHCO | Soho House Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.71 | (0.03) | 1.13 | (1.36) | 12.23 |
MODG Old Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MODG Old stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MODG Old could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MODG Old by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MODG Old Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MODG Old stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MODG Old shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MODG Old stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MODG Old entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
MODG Old Risk Indicators
The analysis of MODG Old's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MODG Old's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting modg stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.86 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.03 | |||
| Variance | 16.2 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.16 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.69 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.31) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MODG Old
The number of cover stories for MODG Old depends on current market conditions and MODG Old's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MODG Old is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MODG Old's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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MODG Old Short Properties
MODG Old's future price predictability will typically decrease when MODG Old's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MODG Old often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MODG Old's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MODG Old's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 183.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 445 M |
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in small area income & poverty estimates. You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Other Consideration for investing in MODG Stock
If you are still planning to invest in MODG Old check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the MODG Old's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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