Merck Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MRK Stock | USD 106.90 1.02 0.95% |
Merck Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Merck's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Merck's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Merck fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of Merck's share price is at 58. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Merck, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.87 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.167 | EPS Estimate Current Year 8.9304 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.586 | Wall Street Target Price 117.2963 |
Using Merck hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Merck Company from the perspective of Merck response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Merck using Merck's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Merck using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Merck's stock price.
Merck Short Interest
An investor who is long Merck may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Merck and may potentially protect profits, hedge Merck with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 87.2607 | Short Percent 0.0146 | Short Ratio 2.32 | Shares Short Prior Month 31.9 M | 50 Day MA 103.1052 |
Merck Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Merck Company on the next trading day is expected to be 106.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 78.67.Merck Company Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Merck's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Merck. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Merck can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Merck Company. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Merck's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Merck.
Merck Implied Volatility | 0.43 |
Merck's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Merck Company stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Merck's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Merck stock will not fluctuate a lot when Merck's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Merck Company on the next trading day is expected to be 106.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 78.67. Merck after-hype prediction price | USD 106.28 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Merck to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Merck contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Merck Company will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0269% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Merck trading at USD 106.9, that is roughly USD 0.0287 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Merck's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Merck Company options at the current volatility level of 0.43%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Merck Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Merck's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Merck's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Merck stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Merck's open interest, investors have to compare it to Merck's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Merck is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Merck. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Merck Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Merck price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Merck using various technical indicators. When you analyze Merck charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Merck Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Merck Company on the next trading day is expected to be 106.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.31, mean absolute percentage error of 2.93, and the sum of the absolute errors of 78.67.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Merck Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Merck's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Merck Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Merck | Merck Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Merck Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Merck's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Merck's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 105.18 and 108.62, respectively. We have considered Merck's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Merck stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Merck stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.3463 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3608 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3112 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0131 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 78.67 |
Predictive Modules for Merck
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merck Company. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Merck After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Merck at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Merck or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Merck, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Merck Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Merck's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Merck's historical news coverage. Merck's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 104.56 and 108.00, respectively. We have considered Merck's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Merck is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Merck Company is based on 3 months time horizon.
Merck Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Merck is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Merck backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Merck, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.39 | 1.72 | 0.62 | 0.41 | 6 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
106.90 | 106.28 | 0.58 |
|
Merck Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January Merck Company is traded for 106.90. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.62, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.41. Merck is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 106.28. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 107.5%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.58%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.39%. The volatility of related hype on Merck is about 162.43%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 106.49. About 80.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.71. Merck Company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.57. The entity last dividend was issued on the 15th of December 2025. The firm had 1048:1000 split on the 3rd of June 2021. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Merck to cross-verify your projections.Merck Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Merck's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Merck's future price movements. Getting to know how Merck's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Merck may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PFE | Pfizer Inc | 0.34 | 29 per month | 1.15 | 0.04 | 2.24 | (2.24) | 7.97 | |
| DIDIY | Didi Global ADR | (4.51) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 4.86 | (4.86) | 13.51 | |
| ZETA | Zeta Global Holdings | (0.84) | 12 per month | 3.68 | 0.03 | 8.32 | (5.77) | 28.98 | |
| AL | Air Lease | (0.08) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.39) | 0.25 | (0.17) | 0.66 | |
| RTTGF | RTG Mining | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.06 | 10.67 | 0.00 | 95.83 | |
| AG | First Majestic Silver | 0.67 | 11 per month | 3.00 | 0.25 | 8.86 | (5.18) | 17.91 | |
| NMEX | Northern Minerals Exploration | 2.04 | 4 per month | 8.71 | 0.10 | 25.00 | (15.00) | 83.85 | |
| SRSNX | Sierra Tactical Risk | (5.79) | 2 per month | 0.44 | (0.02) | 0.79 | (0.98) | 2.35 | |
| AA | Alcoa Corp | (1.36) | 7 per month | 2.43 | 0.18 | 6.40 | (4.96) | 14.55 |
Other Forecasting Options for Merck
For every potential investor in Merck, whether a beginner or expert, Merck's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Merck Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Merck. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Merck's price trends.Merck Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Merck stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Merck could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Merck by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Merck Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Merck stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Merck shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Merck stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Merck Company entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 106.9 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 106.9 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.51) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.02) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 58.28 |
Merck Risk Indicators
The analysis of Merck's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Merck's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting merck stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Variance | 2.79 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.87 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.3 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.50) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Merck
The number of cover stories for Merck depends on current market conditions and Merck's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Merck is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Merck's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Merck Short Properties
Merck's future price predictability will typically decrease when Merck's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Merck Company often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Merck's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Merck's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.5 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 13.7 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Merck to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Merck. Expected growth trajectory for Merck significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Merck assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.87 | Dividend Share 3.2 | Earnings Share 7.57 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.037 |
Understanding Merck Company requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Merck's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Merck's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Merck's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Merck's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Merck represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Merck's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.