Marvell Technology Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MRVL Stock | USD 83.62 0.69 0.83% |
Marvell Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, the value of RSI of Marvell Technology's share price is approaching 46. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Marvell Technology, making its price go up or down. Momentum 46
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Marvell Technology hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Marvell Technology Group from the perspective of Marvell Technology response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Marvell Technology Group on the next trading day is expected to be 83.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 126.91. Marvell Technology after-hype prediction price | USD 83.62 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marvell Technology to cross-verify your projections. Marvell Technology Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Marvell price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Marvell using various technical indicators. When you analyze Marvell charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Marvell Technology Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Marvell Technology Group on the next trading day is expected to be 83.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.12, mean absolute percentage error of 7.68, and the sum of the absolute errors of 126.91.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Marvell Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Marvell Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Marvell Technology Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Marvell Technology | Marvell Technology Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Marvell Technology Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Marvell Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Marvell Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 80.45 and 86.79, respectively. We have considered Marvell Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Marvell Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Marvell Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3111 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1675 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.1152 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0243 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 126.91 |
Predictive Modules for Marvell Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marvell Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Marvell Technology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Marvell Technology After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Marvell Technology at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Marvell Technology or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Marvell Technology, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Marvell Technology Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Marvell Technology's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Marvell Technology's historical news coverage. Marvell Technology's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 80.45 and 86.79, respectively. We have considered Marvell Technology's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Marvell Technology is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Marvell Technology is based on 3 months time horizon.
Marvell Technology Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Marvell Technology is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Marvell Technology backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Marvell Technology, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 3.17 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
83.62 | 83.62 | 0.00 |
|
Marvell Technology Hype Timeline
Marvell Technology is now traded for 83.62. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.03. Marvell is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.14%. %. The volatility of related hype on Marvell Technology is about 1320.83%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 83.65. About 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.52. Marvell Technology last dividend was issued on the 9th of January 2026. The entity had 2:1 split on the 25th of July 2006. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marvell Technology to cross-verify your projections.Marvell Technology Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Marvell Technology's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Marvell Technology's future price movements. Getting to know how Marvell Technology's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Marvell Technology may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MSTR | MicroStrategy Incorporated | (0.06) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 5.01 | (7.76) | 15.64 | |
| NET | Cloudflare | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 3.32 | (5.38) | 19.40 | |
| GLW | Corning Incorporated | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.78 | 0.07 | 3.60 | (4.48) | 20.55 | |
| NXPI | NXP Semiconductors NV | (1.45) | 14 per month | 1.81 | 0.03 | 4.62 | (3.09) | 12.56 | |
| SNPS | Synopsys | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.38 | 0.02 | 3.78 | (4.05) | 9.95 | |
| RBLX | Roblox Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 4.34 | (5.82) | 20.20 | |
| TEL | TE Connectivity | 2.78 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.24 | (3.90) | 9.90 | |
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.26 | 0.1 | 3.91 | (4.21) | 9.88 | |
| INFY | Infosys Ltd ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.68 | 0.03 | 3.57 | (2.59) | 13.18 | |
| FTNT | Fortinet | 1.13 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.47 | (2.63) | 8.99 |
Other Forecasting Options for Marvell Technology
For every potential investor in Marvell, whether a beginner or expert, Marvell Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Marvell Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Marvell. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Marvell Technology's price trends.Marvell Technology Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Marvell Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Marvell Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Marvell Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Marvell Technology Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Marvell Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Marvell Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Marvell Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Marvell Technology Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Marvell Technology Risk Indicators
The analysis of Marvell Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Marvell Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting marvell stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.38 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.17 | |||
| Variance | 10.05 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Marvell Technology
The number of cover stories for Marvell Technology depends on current market conditions and Marvell Technology's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Marvell Technology is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Marvell Technology's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Marvell Technology Short Properties
Marvell Technology's future price predictability will typically decrease when Marvell Technology's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Marvell Technology Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Marvell Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Marvell Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 865.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 948.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marvell Technology to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Marvell Technology. Expected growth trajectory for Marvell significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Marvell Technology assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Understanding Marvell Technology requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Marvell's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Marvell Technology's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Marvell Technology's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Marvell Technology's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Marvell Technology represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Marvell Technology's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.