Morgan Stanley Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MSDL Stock | 16.48 0.09 0.55% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Morgan Stanley Direct on the next trading day is expected to be 16.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.34. Morgan Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Morgan Stanley's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Morgan Stanley's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Morgan Stanley fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Morgan Stanley's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.4999 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.0228 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.8524 | Wall Street Target Price 17.6786 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.5029 |
Using Morgan Stanley hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Morgan Stanley Direct from the perspective of Morgan Stanley response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Morgan Stanley using Morgan Stanley's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Morgan using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Morgan Stanley's stock price.
Morgan Stanley Short Interest
An investor who is long Morgan Stanley may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Morgan Stanley and may potentially protect profits, hedge Morgan Stanley with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 18.2693 | Short Percent 0.0068 | Short Ratio 0.7 | Shares Short Prior Month 630 K | 50 Day MA 17.001 |
Morgan Stanley Direct Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Morgan Stanley's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Morgan. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Morgan can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Morgan Stanley Direct. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Morgan Stanley's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Morgan Stanley.
Morgan Stanley Implied Volatility | 0.46 |
Morgan Stanley's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Morgan Stanley Direct stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Morgan Stanley's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Morgan Stanley stock will not fluctuate a lot when Morgan Stanley's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Morgan Stanley Direct on the next trading day is expected to be 16.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.34. Morgan Stanley after-hype prediction price | USD 16.48 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Morgan Stanley to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Morgan Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Morgan Stanley's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Morgan Stanley's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Morgan Stanley stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Morgan Stanley's open interest, investors have to compare it to Morgan Stanley's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Morgan Stanley is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Morgan. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Morgan Stanley Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Morgan price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Morgan using various technical indicators. When you analyze Morgan charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Morgan Stanley Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Morgan Stanley's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 2020-03-31 | Previous Quarter 75.8 M | Current Value 65.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 27.1 M |
Morgan Stanley Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Morgan Stanley Direct on the next trading day is expected to be 16.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.34.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Morgan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Morgan Stanley's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Morgan Stanley Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Morgan Stanley | Morgan Stanley Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Morgan Stanley Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Morgan Stanley's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Morgan Stanley's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.41 and 17.63, respectively. We have considered Morgan Stanley's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Morgan Stanley stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Morgan Stanley stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.0421 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1695 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0103 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.3401 |
Predictive Modules for Morgan Stanley
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Morgan Stanley Direct. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Morgan Stanley's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Morgan Stanley
For every potential investor in Morgan, whether a beginner or expert, Morgan Stanley's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Morgan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Morgan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Morgan Stanley's price trends.Morgan Stanley Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Morgan Stanley stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Morgan Stanley could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Morgan Stanley by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Morgan Stanley Direct Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Morgan Stanley's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Morgan Stanley's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Morgan Stanley Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Morgan Stanley stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Morgan Stanley shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Morgan Stanley stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Morgan Stanley Direct entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Morgan Stanley Risk Indicators
The analysis of Morgan Stanley's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Morgan Stanley's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting morgan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8928 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.887 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Variance | 1.46 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.9512 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7868 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.03) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ProphetCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Morgan Stanley to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Morgan Stock please use our How to buy in Morgan Stock guide.You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Is Diversified Financial Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Morgan Stanley. If investors know Morgan will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Morgan Stanley listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share 1.65 |
The market value of Morgan Stanley Direct is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Morgan that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Morgan Stanley's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Morgan Stanley's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Morgan Stanley's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Morgan Stanley's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Morgan Stanley's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Morgan Stanley is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Morgan Stanley's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.