Matador Resources Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| MTDR Stock | USD 46.84 1.67 3.44% |
Matador Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Matador Resources' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Matador Resources' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Matador Resources fundamentals over time.
As of today the value of relative strength index of Matador Resources' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.29) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.1739 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.6367 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.1782 | Wall Street Target Price 56.5263 |
Using Matador Resources hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Matador Resources from the perspective of Matador Resources response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Matador Resources using Matador Resources' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Matador using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Matador Resources' stock price.
Matador Resources Short Interest
An investor who is long Matador Resources may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Matador Resources and may potentially protect profits, hedge Matador Resources with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 45.1324 | Short Percent 0.0959 | Short Ratio 5.81 | Shares Short Prior Month 10 M | 50 Day MA 43.413 |
Matador Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Matador Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 48.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.95.Matador Resources Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Matador Resources' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Matador. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Matador can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Matador Resources. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Matador Resources' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Matador Resources.
Matador Resources Implied Volatility | 0.6 |
Matador Resources' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Matador Resources stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Matador Resources' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Matador Resources stock will not fluctuate a lot when Matador Resources' options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Matador Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 48.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.95. Matador Resources after-hype prediction price | USD 46.81 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Matador Resources to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Matador contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Matador Resources will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0375% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Matador Resources trading at USD 46.84, that is roughly USD 0.0176 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Matador Resources' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Matador Resources options at the current volatility level of 0.6%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Matador Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Matador Resources' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Matador Resources' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Matador Resources stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Matador Resources' open interest, investors have to compare it to Matador Resources' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Matador Resources is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Matador. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Matador Resources Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Matador price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Matador using various technical indicators. When you analyze Matador charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Matador Resources Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Matador Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 48.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88, mean absolute percentage error of 1.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Matador Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Matador Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Matador Resources Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Matador Resources | Matador Resources Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Matador Resources Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Matador Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Matador Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 45.66 and 50.34, respectively. We have considered Matador Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Matador Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Matador Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0936 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8805 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0204 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 51.9508 |
Predictive Modules for Matador Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Matador Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Matador Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Matador Resources After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Matador Resources at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Matador Resources or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Matador Resources, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Matador Resources Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Matador Resources' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Matador Resources' historical news coverage. Matador Resources' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 44.45 and 49.17, respectively. We have considered Matador Resources' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Matador Resources is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Matador Resources is based on 3 months time horizon.
Matador Resources Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Matador Resources is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Matador Resources backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Matador Resources, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 2.34 | 0.03 | 0.19 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
46.84 | 46.81 | 0.06 |
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Matador Resources Hype Timeline
Matador Resources is now traded for 46.84. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.19. Matador is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 46.81. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.23%. The volatility of related hype on Matador Resources is about 285.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 47.03. About 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.09. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Matador Resources recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.24. The entity last dividend was issued on the 10th of November 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Matador Resources to cross-verify your projections.Matador Resources Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Matador Resources' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Matador Resources' future price movements. Getting to know how Matador Resources' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Matador Resources may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OKE | ONEOK Inc | 2.69 | 9 per month | 1.25 | 0.18 | 2.64 | (2.34) | 7.19 | |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum | 0.15 | 9 per month | 1.68 | 0.05 | 3.16 | (3.16) | 8.97 | |
| WDS | Woodside Energy Group | 0.40 | 8 per month | 1.53 | 0.04 | 2.57 | (2.21) | 7.90 | |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy | 1.42 | 10 per month | 1.09 | 0.0002 | 1.95 | (1.78) | 4.89 | |
| IMO | Imperial Oil | 1.24 | 9 per month | 1.61 | 0.14 | 3.84 | (2.73) | 8.06 | |
| ET | Energy Transfer LP | 0.11 | 9 per month | 0.63 | 0.11 | 1.69 | (1.36) | 4.31 | |
| SU | Suncor Energy | (0.28) | 11 per month | 0.79 | 0.25 | 2.44 | (1.62) | 5.50 |
Other Forecasting Options for Matador Resources
For every potential investor in Matador, whether a beginner or expert, Matador Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Matador Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Matador. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Matador Resources' price trends.Matador Resources Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Matador Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Matador Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Matador Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Matador Resources Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Matador Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Matador Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Matador Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Matador Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 70691.02 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.58) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 46.94 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 46.91 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.93) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.67) |
Matador Resources Risk Indicators
The analysis of Matador Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Matador Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting matador stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.06 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Variance | 5.3 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.2 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.24 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.99) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Matador Resources
The number of cover stories for Matador Resources depends on current market conditions and Matador Resources' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Matador Resources is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Matador Resources' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Matador Resources Short Properties
Matador Resources' future price predictability will typically decrease when Matador Resources' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Matador Resources often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Matador Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Matador Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 124.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 23 M |
Additional Tools for Matador Stock Analysis
When running Matador Resources' price analysis, check to measure Matador Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Matador Resources is operating at the current time. Most of Matador Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Matador Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Matador Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Matador Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.