MetaVia Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MTVA Stock | 1.73 0.13 6.99% |
MetaVia Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast MetaVia stock prices and determine the direction of MetaVia's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of MetaVia's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time the rsi of MetaVia's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.24) | EPS Estimate Current Year (9.21) | EPS Estimate Next Year (6.43) | Wall Street Target Price 91 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.25) |
Using MetaVia hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MetaVia from the perspective of MetaVia response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MetaVia on the next trading day is expected to be 1.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.36. MetaVia after-hype prediction price | USD 1.18 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MetaVia to cross-verify your projections. MetaVia Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MetaVia price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MetaVia using various technical indicators. When you analyze MetaVia charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MetaVia Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MetaVia on the next trading day is expected to be 1.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58, mean absolute percentage error of 0.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.36.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MetaVia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MetaVia's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MetaVia Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MetaVia | MetaVia Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
MetaVia Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MetaVia's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MetaVia's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 13.00, respectively. We have considered MetaVia's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MetaVia stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MetaVia stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.8674 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1354 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5797 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.086 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 35.36 |
Predictive Modules for MetaVia
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MetaVia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MetaVia's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MetaVia After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MetaVia at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MetaVia or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MetaVia, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MetaVia Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MetaVia's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MetaVia's historical news coverage. MetaVia's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.06 and 12.45, respectively. We have considered MetaVia's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MetaVia is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MetaVia is based on 3 months time horizon.
MetaVia Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MetaVia is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MetaVia backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MetaVia, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
2.01 | 11.27 | 1.43 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.73 | 1.18 | 31.55 |
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MetaVia Hype Timeline
MetaVia is now traded for 1.73. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.43, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. MetaVia is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 1.18. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -31.55%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -2.01%. The volatility of related hype on MetaVia is about 563500.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.73. About 56.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.2. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. MetaVia recorded a loss per share of 10.23. The entity last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2019. The firm had 1:11 split on the 5th of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MetaVia to cross-verify your projections.MetaVia Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MetaVia's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MetaVia's future price movements. Getting to know how MetaVia's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MetaVia may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LSTA | Lisata Therapeutics | 0.04 | 10 per month | 2.82 | 0.10 | 5.58 | (5.26) | 88.09 | |
| NCNA | NuCana PLC | (0.22) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 6.53 | (7.92) | 16.72 | |
| XCUR | Exicure | 0.24 | 7 per month | 8.59 | 0.04 | 21.22 | (11.88) | 63.80 | |
| ENLV | Enlivex Therapeutics | (0.12) | 7 per month | 4.42 | 0.05 | 8.57 | (8.16) | 24.21 | |
| KLTO | Klotho Neurosciences | 0.00 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 10.34 | (10.00) | 28.13 | |
| PASG | Passage Bio | 0.19 | 7 per month | 6.70 | 0.06 | 14.59 | (9.87) | 58.13 | |
| CLSD | Clearside Biomedical | 0.36 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 7.96 | (17.54) | 83.67 | |
| CASI | CASI Pharmaceuticals | (0.07) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 5.10 | (7.59) | 32.11 | |
| SONN | Sonnet Biotherapeutics Holdings | (0.58) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 19.48 | (18.21) | 69.59 | |
| CLGN | Collplant Biotechnologies | 0.18 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 8.51 | (8.70) | 32.88 |
Other Forecasting Options for MetaVia
For every potential investor in MetaVia, whether a beginner or expert, MetaVia's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MetaVia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MetaVia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MetaVia's price trends.MetaVia Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MetaVia stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MetaVia could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MetaVia by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MetaVia Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MetaVia stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MetaVia shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MetaVia stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MetaVia entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 18976.48 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.68) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.93 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.76 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.75 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.09) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.13) |
MetaVia Risk Indicators
The analysis of MetaVia's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MetaVia's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting metavia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 7.59 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 11.08 | |||
| Variance | 122.75 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MetaVia
The number of cover stories for MetaVia depends on current market conditions and MetaVia's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MetaVia is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MetaVia's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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MetaVia Short Properties
MetaVia's future price predictability will typically decrease when MetaVia's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MetaVia often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MetaVia's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MetaVia's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 705.2 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 16 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MetaVia to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade MetaVia Stock refer to our How to Trade MetaVia Stock guide.You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MetaVia. Expected growth trajectory for MetaVia significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive MetaVia assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Understanding MetaVia requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects MetaVia's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what MetaVia's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push MetaVia's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that MetaVia's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether MetaVia represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, MetaVia's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.