Norwegian Cruise Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| NCLH Stock | USD 22.92 2.13 10.25% |
Norwegian Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Norwegian Cruise's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 29th of January 2026, The relative strength index (RSI) of Norwegian Cruise's share price is at 53. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Norwegian Cruise, making its price go up or down. Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.1) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.3043 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.0977 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.6308 | Wall Street Target Price 27.7046 |
Using Norwegian Cruise hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Norwegian Cruise Line from the perspective of Norwegian Cruise response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Norwegian Cruise using Norwegian Cruise's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Norwegian using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Norwegian Cruise's stock price.
Norwegian Cruise Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Norwegian Cruise's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Norwegian. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Norwegian Cruise stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 21.3942 | Short Percent 0.1148 | Short Ratio 2.53 | Shares Short Prior Month 40.6 M | 50 Day MA 20.8758 |
Norwegian Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Norwegian Cruise Line on the next trading day is expected to be 21.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.34.Norwegian Cruise Line Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Norwegian Cruise's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Norwegian. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Norwegian can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Norwegian Cruise Line. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Norwegian Cruise's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Norwegian Cruise.
Norwegian Cruise Implied Volatility | 0.91 |
Norwegian Cruise's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Norwegian Cruise Line stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Norwegian Cruise's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Norwegian Cruise stock will not fluctuate a lot when Norwegian Cruise's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Norwegian Cruise Line on the next trading day is expected to be 21.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.34. Norwegian Cruise after-hype prediction price | USD 22.66 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Norwegian | Build AI portfolio with Norwegian Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Norwegian contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Norwegian Cruise Line will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0569% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Norwegian Cruise trading at USD 22.92, that is roughly USD 0.013 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Norwegian Cruise's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Norwegian Cruise Line options at the current volatility level of 0.91%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Norwegian Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Norwegian Cruise's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Norwegian Cruise's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Norwegian Cruise stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Norwegian Cruise's open interest, investors have to compare it to Norwegian Cruise's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Norwegian Cruise is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Norwegian. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Norwegian Cruise Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Norwegian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Norwegian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Norwegian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Norwegian Cruise Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Norwegian Cruise Line on the next trading day is expected to be 21.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57, mean absolute percentage error of 0.76, and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.34.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Norwegian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Norwegian Cruise's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Norwegian Cruise Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Norwegian Cruise | Norwegian Cruise Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Norwegian Cruise Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Norwegian Cruise's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Norwegian Cruise's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.38 and 25.33, respectively. We have considered Norwegian Cruise's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Norwegian Cruise stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Norwegian Cruise stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.157 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0013 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.565 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0272 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 33.335 |
Predictive Modules for Norwegian Cruise
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Norwegian Cruise Line. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Norwegian Cruise After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Norwegian Cruise at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Norwegian Cruise or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Norwegian Cruise, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Norwegian Cruise Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Norwegian Cruise's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Norwegian Cruise's historical news coverage. Norwegian Cruise's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.18 and 26.14, respectively. We have considered Norwegian Cruise's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Norwegian Cruise is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Norwegian Cruise Line is based on 3 months time horizon.
Norwegian Cruise Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Norwegian Cruise is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Norwegian Cruise backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Norwegian Cruise, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 3.48 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 11 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
22.92 | 22.66 | 0.18 |
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Norwegian Cruise Hype Timeline
Norwegian Cruise Line is now traded for 22.92. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. Norwegian is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 22.66. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.18%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Norwegian Cruise is about 488.76%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 22.98. About 85.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Norwegian Cruise was now reported as 4.82. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.44. Norwegian Cruise Line had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Norwegian Cruise to cross-verify your projections.Norwegian Cruise Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Norwegian Cruise's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Norwegian Cruise's future price movements. Getting to know how Norwegian Cruise's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Norwegian Cruise may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PAG | Penske Automotive Group | (0.28) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.62 | (2.10) | 6.07 | |
| DDS | Dillards | 2.83 | 12 per month | 2.73 | 0.01 | 5.05 | (4.39) | 17.26 | |
| CART | Maplebear | (1.68) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.91 | (3.87) | 11.01 | |
| GME | GameStop Corp | 0.02 | 6 per month | 1.74 | (0.03) | 4.05 | (3.00) | 8.44 | |
| TXRH | Texas Roadhouse | 3.94 | 7 per month | 1.49 | (0.01) | 2.78 | (2.47) | 8.07 | |
| ALV | Autoliv | 1.09 | 9 per month | 1.27 | 0.06 | 2.85 | (2.47) | 6.91 | |
| SCI | Service International | (0.11) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.77 | (1.61) | 7.10 | |
| CCK | Crown Holdings | 1.10 | 9 per month | 1.55 | 0.01 | 2.35 | (2.36) | 6.71 | |
| GIL | Gildan Activewear | 0.10 | 8 per month | 1.47 | 0.04 | 3.72 | (2.65) | 8.74 | |
| VIPS | Vipshop Holdings Limited | 0.11 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.00 | (3.66) | 13.81 |
Other Forecasting Options for Norwegian Cruise
For every potential investor in Norwegian, whether a beginner or expert, Norwegian Cruise's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Norwegian Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Norwegian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Norwegian Cruise's price trends.Norwegian Cruise Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Norwegian Cruise stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Norwegian Cruise could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Norwegian Cruise by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Norwegian Cruise Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Norwegian Cruise stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Norwegian Cruise shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Norwegian Cruise stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Norwegian Cruise Line entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Norwegian Cruise Risk Indicators
The analysis of Norwegian Cruise's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Norwegian Cruise's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting norwegian stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.2 | |||
| Variance | 10.24 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Norwegian Cruise
The number of cover stories for Norwegian Cruise depends on current market conditions and Norwegian Cruise's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Norwegian Cruise is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Norwegian Cruise's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Norwegian Cruise Short Properties
Norwegian Cruise's future price predictability will typically decrease when Norwegian Cruise's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Norwegian Cruise Line often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Norwegian Cruise's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Norwegian Cruise's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 515 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 190.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Norwegian Cruise to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Is there potential for Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines market expansion? Will Norwegian introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Norwegian Cruise. Anticipated expansion of Norwegian directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Norwegian Cruise listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.1) | Earnings Share 1.39 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.047 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Norwegian Cruise Line is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Norwegian that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Norwegian Cruise's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Norwegian Cruise's true underlying value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Because Norwegian Cruise's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Norwegian Cruise's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Norwegian Cruise's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Norwegian Cruise should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Norwegian Cruise's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.