New Fortress Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

NFE Stock  USD 9.75  0.24  2.52%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of New Fortress Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 9.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.97. New Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast New Fortress stock prices and determine the direction of New Fortress Energy's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of New Fortress' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
As of November 25, 2024, Inventory Turnover is expected to decline to 9.70. In addition to that, Payables Turnover is expected to decline to 2.21. The current year's Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to grow to about 234.8 M, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is forecasted to decline to about 128.9 M.

New Fortress Cash Forecast

Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the New Fortress' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2016-12-31
Previous Quarter
297.8 M
Current Value
90.8 M
Quarterly Volatility
153.6 M
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for New Fortress is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of New Fortress Energy value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

New Fortress Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of New Fortress Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 9.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38, mean absolute percentage error of 0.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.97.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict New Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that New Fortress' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

New Fortress Stock Forecast Pattern

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New Fortress Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting New Fortress' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. New Fortress' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.65 and 14.75, respectively. We have considered New Fortress' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
9.75
9.70
Expected Value
14.75
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of New Fortress stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent New Fortress stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.7379
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3766
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.039
SAESum of the absolute errors22.9746
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of New Fortress Energy. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict New Fortress. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for New Fortress

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as New Fortress Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.659.6614.67
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.7818.0223.03
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
40.5544.5649.46
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as New Fortress. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against New Fortress' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, New Fortress' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in New Fortress Energy.

Other Forecasting Options for New Fortress

For every potential investor in New, whether a beginner or expert, New Fortress' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. New Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in New. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying New Fortress' price trends.

New Fortress Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with New Fortress stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of New Fortress could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing New Fortress by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

New Fortress Energy Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of New Fortress' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of New Fortress' current price.

New Fortress Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how New Fortress stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading New Fortress shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying New Fortress stock market strength indicators, traders can identify New Fortress Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

New Fortress Risk Indicators

The analysis of New Fortress' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in New Fortress' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting new stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When determining whether New Fortress Energy is a strong investment it is important to analyze New Fortress' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact New Fortress' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding New Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of New Fortress to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Is Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of New Fortress. If investors know New will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about New Fortress listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.90)
Dividend Share
0.4
Earnings Share
0.91
Revenue Per Share
11.791
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.103
The market value of New Fortress Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of New that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of New Fortress' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is New Fortress' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because New Fortress' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect New Fortress' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between New Fortress' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if New Fortress is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, New Fortress' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.