NovaGold Resources Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| NG Stock | CAD 14.52 0.53 3.79% |
NovaGold Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although NovaGold Resources' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of NovaGold Resources' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of NovaGold Resources fundamentals over time.
The relative strength momentum indicator of NovaGold Resources' stock price is about 61. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling NovaGold, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year (0.26) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.22) | Wall Street Target Price 20.6667 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.04) |
Using NovaGold Resources hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of NovaGold Resources from the perspective of NovaGold Resources response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of NovaGold Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 14.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.50. NovaGold Resources after-hype prediction price | CAD 14.48 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
NovaGold |
NovaGold Resources Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine NovaGold price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NovaGold using various technical indicators. When you analyze NovaGold charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
NovaGold Resources Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 20th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of NovaGold Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 14.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65, mean absolute percentage error of 0.76, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NovaGold Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NovaGold Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
NovaGold Resources Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest NovaGold Resources | NovaGold Resources Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
NovaGold Resources Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting NovaGold Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NovaGold Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.01 and 19.57, respectively. We have considered NovaGold Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NovaGold Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NovaGold Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.672 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6532 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0488 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 40.4996 |
Predictive Modules for NovaGold Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NovaGold Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NovaGold Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NovaGold Resources After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of NovaGold Resources at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in NovaGold Resources or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of NovaGold Resources, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
NovaGold Resources Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting NovaGold Resources' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on NovaGold Resources' historical news coverage. NovaGold Resources' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.20 and 19.76, respectively. We have considered NovaGold Resources' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
NovaGold Resources is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of NovaGold Resources is based on 3 months time horizon.
NovaGold Resources Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NovaGold Resources is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NovaGold Resources backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NovaGold Resources, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.52 | 5.28 | 0.04 | 0.43 | 8 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
14.52 | 14.48 | 0.28 |
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NovaGold Resources Hype Timeline
NovaGold Resources is now traded for 14.52on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.43. NovaGold is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 14.48. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -0.28%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.52%. The volatility of related hype on NovaGold Resources is about 632.76%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.95. About 23.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.34. NovaGold Resources last dividend was issued on the 28th of June 1999. The entity had 1:10 split on the 17th of December 1997. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NovaGold Resources to cross-verify your projections.NovaGold Resources Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to NovaGold Resources' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict NovaGold Resources' future price movements. Getting to know how NovaGold Resources' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how NovaGold Resources may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KNT | K92 Mining | 0.20 | 8 per month | 2.77 | 0.21 | 4.61 | (3.60) | 13.97 | |
| OLA | Orla Mining | 1.51 | 9 per month | 4.54 | 0.12 | 8.35 | (7.97) | 24.24 | |
| WGX | Westgold Resources Limited | 0.14 | 5 per month | 2.98 | 0.12 | 4.86 | (5.37) | 16.16 | |
| TXG | Torex Gold Resources | (1.06) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.38 | (7.96) | 19.51 | |
| DPM | Dundee Precious Metals | 0.79 | 4 per month | 3.36 | 0.22 | 5.49 | (2.73) | 19.23 | |
| NGEX | NGEx Minerals | (0.51) | 4 per month | 3.10 | 0.10 | 5.08 | (5.31) | 16.13 | |
| SEA | Seabridge Gold | 5.92 | 9 per month | 3.91 | 0.13 | 6.58 | (4.77) | 27.40 | |
| CG | Centerra Gold | 0.42 | 10 per month | 3.38 | 0.19 | 5.87 | (4.10) | 21.48 | |
| PRU | Perseus Mining | 0.10 | 9 per month | 3.45 | 0.06 | 4.09 | (4.82) | 18.09 |
Other Forecasting Options for NovaGold Resources
For every potential investor in NovaGold, whether a beginner or expert, NovaGold Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NovaGold Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NovaGold. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NovaGold Resources' price trends.NovaGold Resources Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NovaGold Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NovaGold Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NovaGold Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NovaGold Resources Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NovaGold Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NovaGold Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NovaGold Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NovaGold Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
NovaGold Resources Risk Indicators
The analysis of NovaGold Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NovaGold Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting novagold stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.52 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.14 | |||
| Variance | 26.45 | |||
| Downside Variance | 28.18 | |||
| Semi Variance | 26.05 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.03) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for NovaGold Resources
The number of cover stories for NovaGold Resources depends on current market conditions and NovaGold Resources' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that NovaGold Resources is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about NovaGold Resources' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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NovaGold Resources Short Properties
NovaGold Resources' future price predictability will typically decrease when NovaGold Resources' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of NovaGold Resources often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential NovaGold Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NovaGold Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 374.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 115.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NovaGold Resources to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in NovaGold Stock, please use our How to Invest in NovaGold Resources guide.You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.