NGL Energy Preferred Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NGL-PB Preferred Stock | USD 24.40 0.14 0.58% |
NGL Preferred Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast NGL Energy stock prices and determine the direction of NGL Energy Partners's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of NGL Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The value of RSI of NGL Energy's preferred stock price is about 68. This indicates that the preferred stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling NGL, making its price go up or down. Momentum 68
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using NGL Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of NGL Energy Partners from the perspective of NGL Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NGL Energy Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 24.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.98. NGL Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 24.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as preferred stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
NGL |
NGL Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine NGL price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NGL using various technical indicators. When you analyze NGL charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
NGL Energy Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NGL Energy Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 24.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.98.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NGL Preferred Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NGL Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
NGL Energy Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest NGL Energy | NGL Energy Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
NGL Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting NGL Energy's Preferred Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NGL Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.28 and 25.52, respectively. We have considered NGL Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NGL Energy preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NGL Energy preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.3093 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0552 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1308 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0056 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.9774 |
Predictive Modules for NGL Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NGL Energy Partners. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.NGL Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of NGL Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in NGL Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Preferred Stock prices, such as prices of NGL Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
NGL Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting NGL Energy's preferred stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on NGL Energy's historical news coverage. NGL Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 23.28 and 25.52, respectively. We have considered NGL Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
NGL Energy is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of NGL Energy Partners is based on 3 months time horizon.
NGL Energy Preferred Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NGL Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NGL Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Preferred Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NGL Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 1.12 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
24.40 | 24.40 | 0.00 |
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NGL Energy Hype Timeline
NGL Energy Partners is now traded for 24.40. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.02. NGL is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.21%. %. The volatility of related hype on NGL Energy is about 1400.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.42. The company recorded a loss per share of 2.22. NGL Energy Partners last dividend was issued on the 30th of December 2020. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next expected press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NGL Energy to cross-verify your projections.NGL Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to NGL Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict NGL Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how NGL Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how NGL Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CLNE | Clean Energy Fuels | (0.06) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.62 | (3.81) | 22.82 | |
| VTLE | Vital Energy | 0.46 | 24 per month | 3.23 | 0.03 | 6.39 | (5.94) | 16.09 | |
| SOC | Sable Offshore Corp | 0.52 | 10 per month | 10.76 | 0.04 | 20.50 | (18.47) | 72.14 | |
| URG | Ur Energy | 0.03 | 8 per month | 3.92 | 0.05 | 5.83 | (7.30) | 17.52 | |
| TNP | Tsakos Energy Navigation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| REPX | Riley Exploration Permian | 0.87 | 9 per month | 1.99 | 0.01 | 4.57 | (3.28) | 10.71 | |
| KOS | Kosmos Energy | 0.07 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 10.27 | (5.99) | 25.11 | |
| GRNT | Granite Ridge Resources | 0.10 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.31 | (4.27) | 8.29 | |
| TBN | Tamboran Resources | (1.25) | 10 per month | 2.11 | 0.07 | 4.46 | (3.26) | 13.64 | |
| EU | enCore Energy Corp | 0.06 | 10 per month | 4.19 | 0.05 | 7.58 | (7.12) | 18.67 |
Other Forecasting Options for NGL Energy
For every potential investor in NGL, whether a beginner or expert, NGL Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NGL Preferred Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NGL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NGL Energy's price trends.NGL Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NGL Energy preferred stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NGL Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NGL Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NGL Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NGL Energy preferred stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NGL Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NGL Energy preferred stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NGL Energy Partners entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
NGL Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of NGL Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NGL Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ngl preferred stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6072 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.3914 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Variance | 1.2 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.5319 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1532 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.76) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for NGL Energy
The number of cover stories for NGL Energy depends on current market conditions and NGL Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that NGL Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about NGL Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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NGL Energy Short Properties
NGL Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when NGL Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of NGL Energy Partners often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential NGL Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NGL Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 129.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.8 M |
Other Information on Investing in NGL Preferred Stock
NGL Energy financial ratios help investors to determine whether NGL Preferred Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in NGL with respect to the benefits of owning NGL Energy security.