NGL Energy Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NGL Stock | USD 11.20 0.21 1.84% |
NGL Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although NGL Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of NGL Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of NGL Energy fundamentals over time.
The value of relative strength index of NGL Energy's stock price is about 66. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling NGL, making its price go up or down. Momentum 66
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.60) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.09 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.43 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.94 | Wall Street Target Price 5 |
Using NGL Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of NGL Energy Partners from the perspective of NGL Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards NGL Energy using NGL Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards NGL using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of NGL Energy's stock price.
NGL Energy Short Interest
An investor who is long NGL Energy may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about NGL Energy and may potentially protect profits, hedge NGL Energy with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 6.1104 | Short Percent 0.0403 | Short Ratio 15.51 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.9 M | 50 Day MA 9.823 |
NGL Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NGL Energy Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 11.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.28.NGL Energy Partners Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to NGL Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in NGL. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding NGL can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around NGL Energy Partners. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of NGL Energy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about NGL Energy.
NGL Energy Implied Volatility | 0.83 |
NGL Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of NGL Energy Partners stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if NGL Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that NGL Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when NGL Energy's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NGL Energy Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 11.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.28. NGL Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 10.72 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NGL Energy to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current NGL contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that NGL Energy Partners will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0519% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With NGL Energy trading at USD 11.2, that is roughly USD 0.00581 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating NGL Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring NGL Energy Partners options at the current volatility level of 0.83%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 NGL Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast NGL Energy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in NGL Energy's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for NGL Energy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current NGL Energy's open interest, investors have to compare it to NGL Energy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of NGL Energy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in NGL. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
NGL Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine NGL price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NGL using various technical indicators. When you analyze NGL charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
NGL Energy Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NGL Energy Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 11.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.28.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NGL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NGL Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
NGL Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest NGL Energy | NGL Energy Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
NGL Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting NGL Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NGL Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.63 and 15.77, respectively. We have considered NGL Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NGL Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NGL Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.3542 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.079 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2547 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0267 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.28 |
Predictive Modules for NGL Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NGL Energy Partners. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.NGL Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of NGL Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in NGL Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of NGL Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
NGL Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting NGL Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on NGL Energy's historical news coverage. NGL Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.15 and 15.29, respectively. We have considered NGL Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
NGL Energy is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of NGL Energy Partners is based on 3 months time horizon.
NGL Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NGL Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NGL Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NGL Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.00 | 4.57 | 0.48 | 0.20 | 8 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.20 | 10.72 | 4.29 |
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NGL Energy Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January NGL Energy Partners is traded for 11.20. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.48, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.2. NGL is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 10.72. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -4.29%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 1.0%. The volatility of related hype on NGL Energy is about 2240.2%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.00. About 57.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.4. NGL Energy Partners last dividend was issued on the 5th of November 2020. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NGL Energy to cross-verify your projections.NGL Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to NGL Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict NGL Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how NGL Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how NGL Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GLP | Global Partners LP | 0.27 | 11 per month | 1.83 | (0) | 3.06 | (2.99) | 9.17 | |
| TK | Teekay | 0.01 | 8 per month | 1.47 | 0.05 | 3.00 | (2.33) | 11.37 | |
| ACDC | ProFrac Holding Corp | (0.06) | 7 per month | 4.97 | 0.04 | 8.98 | (7.14) | 44.42 | |
| WBI | WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC | 0.16 | 30 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.46 | (4.35) | 11.64 | |
| PDS | Precision Drilling | (1.06) | 7 per month | 1.43 | 0.22 | 2.93 | (2.63) | 7.53 | |
| TTI | Tetra Technologies | (0.33) | 9 per month | 2.83 | 0.15 | 5.99 | (4.75) | 16.00 | |
| DEC | Diversified Energy | (0.02) | 9 per month | 2.81 | 0.01 | 4.14 | (4.75) | 13.27 | |
| TNP | Tsakos Energy Navigation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| TEN-PE | Tsakos Energy Navigation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.28 | (0.12) | 0.57 | (0.56) | 1.98 | |
| NBR | Nabors Industries | (1.01) | 10 per month | 2.51 | 0.15 | 8.06 | (5.08) | 17.59 |
Other Forecasting Options for NGL Energy
For every potential investor in NGL, whether a beginner or expert, NGL Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NGL Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NGL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NGL Energy's price trends.NGL Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NGL Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NGL Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NGL Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NGL Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NGL Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NGL Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NGL Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NGL Energy Partners entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11.2 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.2 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.11) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.21) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 66.59 |
NGL Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of NGL Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NGL Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ngl stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.67 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.11 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.4 | |||
| Variance | 19.39 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.46 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.26) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for NGL Energy
The number of cover stories for NGL Energy depends on current market conditions and NGL Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that NGL Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about NGL Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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NGL Energy Short Properties
NGL Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when NGL Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of NGL Energy Partners often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential NGL Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NGL Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 132 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 13.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NGL Energy to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Is Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NGL Energy. Anticipated expansion of NGL directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive NGL Energy assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.60) | Earnings Share (0.40) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.11) | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate NGL Energy Partners using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating NGL Energy's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause NGL Energy's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between NGL Energy's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding NGL Energy should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, NGL Energy's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.