National HealthCare Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| NHC Stock | USD 143.23 1.72 1.19% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of National HealthCare on the next trading day is expected to be 151.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 134.93. National Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast National HealthCare stock prices and determine the direction of National HealthCare's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of National HealthCare's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of National HealthCare's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.08) | Wall Street Target Price 6.15 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.125 |
Using National HealthCare hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of National HealthCare from the perspective of National HealthCare response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards National HealthCare using National HealthCare's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards National using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of National HealthCare's stock price.
National HealthCare Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in National HealthCare's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards National. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of National HealthCare stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 105.0966 | Short Percent 0.0297 | Short Ratio 4.5 | Shares Short Prior Month 330.3 K | 50 Day MA 120.9438 |
National HealthCare Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to National HealthCare's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in National. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding National can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around National HealthCare. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
National HealthCare Implied Volatility | 0.3 |
National HealthCare's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of National HealthCare stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if National HealthCare's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that National HealthCare stock will not fluctuate a lot when National HealthCare's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of National HealthCare on the next trading day is expected to be 151.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 134.93. National HealthCare after-hype prediction price | USD 143.92 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National HealthCare to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current National contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that National HealthCare will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0188% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With National HealthCare trading at USD 143.23, that is roughly USD 0.0269 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating National HealthCare's daily price movement you should consider acquiring National HealthCare options at the current volatility level of 0.3%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 National Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast National HealthCare's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in National HealthCare's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for National HealthCare stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current National HealthCare's open interest, investors have to compare it to National HealthCare's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of National HealthCare is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in National. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
National HealthCare Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine National price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for National using various technical indicators. When you analyze National charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
National HealthCare Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the National HealthCare's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1991-12-31 | Previous Quarter 111 M | Current Value 130.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 46.6 M |
National HealthCare Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of National HealthCare on the next trading day is expected to be 151.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.18, mean absolute percentage error of 7.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 134.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National HealthCare's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
National HealthCare Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest National HealthCare | National HealthCare Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
National HealthCare Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting National HealthCare's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National HealthCare's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 150.04 and 153.41, respectively. We have considered National HealthCare's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National HealthCare stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National HealthCare stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.947 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.1764 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0164 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 134.9339 |
Predictive Modules for National HealthCare
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National HealthCare. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.National HealthCare After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of National HealthCare at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in National HealthCare or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of National HealthCare, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
National HealthCare Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting National HealthCare's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on National HealthCare's historical news coverage. National HealthCare's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 142.23 and 145.61, respectively. We have considered National HealthCare's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
National HealthCare is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of National HealthCare is based on 3 months time horizon.
National HealthCare Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as National HealthCare is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading National HealthCare backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with National HealthCare, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.31 | 1.69 | 0.69 | 0.06 | 6 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
143.23 | 143.92 | 0.48 |
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National HealthCare Hype Timeline
On the 24th of January National HealthCare is traded for 143.23. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.69, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. National is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 143.92 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 75.45%. The price growth on the next news is forecasted to be 0.48%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.31%. The volatility of related hype on National HealthCare is about 857.87%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 143.17. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.3 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 102.09 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 578.46 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National HealthCare to cross-verify your projections.National HealthCare Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to National HealthCare's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict National HealthCare's future price movements. Getting to know how National HealthCare's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how National HealthCare may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | (0.76) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 5.71 | (7.64) | 21.29 | |
| MD | Mednax Inc | (0.01) | 12 per month | 1.61 | 0.1 | 3.16 | (3.02) | 28.51 | |
| SEM | Select Medical Holdings | 0.24 | 10 per month | 0.98 | 0.07 | 3.00 | (2.37) | 13.50 | |
| AVAH | Aveanna Healthcare Holdings | (0.11) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 4.50 | (5.27) | 15.54 | |
| ADUS | Addus HomeCare | 0.05 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.84 | (3.16) | 11.54 | |
| BKD | Brookdale Senior Living | (0.04) | 10 per month | 0.64 | 0.28 | 4.17 | (1.73) | 9.26 | |
| LFST | Lifestance Health Group | (0.33) | 4 per month | 0.96 | 0.13 | 3.26 | (2.35) | 32.75 | |
| ARDT | Ardent Health Partners | 0.05 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.47 | (3.69) | 36.66 | |
| ASTH | Astrana Health | (0.01) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 6.14 | (7.16) | 29.14 | |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services | (1.05) | 9 per month | 2.29 | 0.1 | 4.48 | (3.61) | 13.96 |
Other Forecasting Options for National HealthCare
For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National HealthCare's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National HealthCare's price trends.National HealthCare Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National HealthCare stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National HealthCare could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National HealthCare by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
National HealthCare Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National HealthCare stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National HealthCare shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National HealthCare stock market strength indicators, traders can identify National HealthCare entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1238.96 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.50) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 143.07 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 143.13 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.71) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.72) |
National HealthCare Risk Indicators
The analysis of National HealthCare's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National HealthCare's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting national stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.31 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.49 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Variance | 2.83 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.84 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.21 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.37) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for National HealthCare
The number of cover stories for National HealthCare depends on current market conditions and National HealthCare's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that National HealthCare is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about National HealthCare's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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National HealthCare Short Properties
National HealthCare's future price predictability will typically decrease when National HealthCare's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of National HealthCare often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential National HealthCare's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National HealthCare's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 15.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 216.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National HealthCare to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade National Stock refer to our How to Trade National Stock guide.You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Is Health Care Providers & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National HealthCare. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National HealthCare listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.08) | Dividend Share 2.5 | Earnings Share 6.48 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.125 |
The market value of National HealthCare is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National HealthCare's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National HealthCare's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National HealthCare's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National HealthCare's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National HealthCare's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if National HealthCare is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National HealthCare's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.