NextNav Warrant Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| NNAVW Stock | USD 6.28 0.19 3.12% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of NextNav Warrant on the next trading day is expected to be 5.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.35. NextNav Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
NextNav |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the NextNav Warrant's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 81.9 M | Current Value 55.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 28.5 M |
NextNav Warrant Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of NextNav Warrant on the next trading day is expected to be 5.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NextNav Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NextNav Warrant's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
NextNav Warrant Stock Forecast Pattern
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NextNav Warrant Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting NextNav Warrant's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NextNav Warrant's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.26 and 10.60, respectively. We have considered NextNav Warrant's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NextNav Warrant stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NextNav Warrant stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.9884 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1533 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0402 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.3507 |
Predictive Modules for NextNav Warrant
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NextNav Warrant. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NextNav Warrant's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for NextNav Warrant
For every potential investor in NextNav, whether a beginner or expert, NextNav Warrant's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NextNav Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NextNav. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NextNav Warrant's price trends.NextNav Warrant Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NextNav Warrant stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NextNav Warrant could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NextNav Warrant by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NextNav Warrant Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of NextNav Warrant's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of NextNav Warrant's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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NextNav Warrant Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NextNav Warrant stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NextNav Warrant shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NextNav Warrant stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NextNav Warrant entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
NextNav Warrant Risk Indicators
The analysis of NextNav Warrant's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NextNav Warrant's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nextnav stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.15 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.45 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.38 | |||
| Variance | 28.91 | |||
| Downside Variance | 25.83 | |||
| Semi Variance | 19.82 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.80) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for NextNav Stock Analysis
When running NextNav Warrant's price analysis, check to measure NextNav Warrant's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NextNav Warrant is operating at the current time. Most of NextNav Warrant's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NextNav Warrant's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NextNav Warrant's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NextNav Warrant to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.