Northrim BanCorp Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| NRIM Stock | USD 88.08 0.42 0.47% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Northrim BanCorp on the next trading day is expected to be 88.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 85.46. Northrim Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Northrim BanCorp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Northrim BanCorp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Northrim BanCorp fundamentals over time.
Northrim |
Northrim BanCorp Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Northrim BanCorp on the next trading day is expected to be 88.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.45, mean absolute percentage error of 4.71, and the sum of the absolute errors of 85.46.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Northrim Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Northrim BanCorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Northrim BanCorp Stock Forecast Pattern
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Northrim BanCorp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Northrim BanCorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Northrim BanCorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 86.01 and 91.86, respectively. We have considered Northrim BanCorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Northrim BanCorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Northrim BanCorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.401 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4485 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0198 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 85.4627 |
Predictive Modules for Northrim BanCorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northrim BanCorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Northrim BanCorp
For every potential investor in Northrim, whether a beginner or expert, Northrim BanCorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Northrim Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Northrim. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Northrim BanCorp's price trends.View Northrim BanCorp Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Northrim BanCorp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Northrim BanCorp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Northrim BanCorp's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Northrim BanCorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Northrim BanCorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Northrim BanCorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Northrim BanCorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Northrim BanCorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Northrim BanCorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Northrim BanCorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Northrim BanCorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting northrim stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.86 | |||
| Variance | 8.2 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.1 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.88 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.23) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northrim BanCorp. If investors know Northrim will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Northrim BanCorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.061 | Dividend Share 2.46 | Earnings Share 5.86 | Revenue Per Share 25.726 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.157 |
The market value of Northrim BanCorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Northrim that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Northrim BanCorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Northrim BanCorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Northrim BanCorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Northrim BanCorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Northrim BanCorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Northrim BanCorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northrim BanCorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.