NetScout Systems Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| NTCT Stock | USD 27.81 0.15 0.54% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of NetScout Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 28.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.36. NetScout Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of RSI of NetScout Systems' share price is at 52. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling NetScout Systems, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using NetScout Systems hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of NetScout Systems from the perspective of NetScout Systems response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of NetScout Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 28.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.36. NetScout Systems after-hype prediction price | USD 27.81 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NetScout Systems to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy NetScout Stock please use our How to Invest in NetScout Systems guide.NetScout Systems Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine NetScout price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NetScout using various technical indicators. When you analyze NetScout charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
NetScout Systems Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of NetScout Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 28.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43, mean absolute percentage error of 0.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.36.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NetScout Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NetScout Systems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
NetScout Systems Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest NetScout Systems | NetScout Systems Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
NetScout Systems Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting NetScout Systems' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NetScout Systems' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.58 and 30.52, respectively. We have considered NetScout Systems' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NetScout Systems stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NetScout Systems stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.0134 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4322 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0158 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.3634 |
Predictive Modules for NetScout Systems
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NetScout Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NetScout Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NetScout Systems After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of NetScout Systems at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in NetScout Systems or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of NetScout Systems, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
NetScout Systems Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting NetScout Systems' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on NetScout Systems' historical news coverage. NetScout Systems' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.84 and 29.78, respectively. We have considered NetScout Systems' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
NetScout Systems is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of NetScout Systems is based on 3 months time horizon.
NetScout Systems Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NetScout Systems is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NetScout Systems backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NetScout Systems, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 1.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
27.81 | 27.81 | 0.00 |
|
NetScout Systems Hype Timeline
NetScout Systems is now traded for 27.81. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. NetScout is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on NetScout Systems is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 27.81. About 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.24. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. NetScout Systems has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.57. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NetScout Systems to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy NetScout Stock please use our How to Invest in NetScout Systems guide.NetScout Systems Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to NetScout Systems' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict NetScout Systems' future price movements. Getting to know how NetScout Systems' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how NetScout Systems may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TDC | Teradata Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.53 | 0.12 | 3.55 | (3.66) | 36.67 | |
| PAYO | Payoneer Global | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.97 | (3.66) | 9.39 | |
| PGY | Pagaya Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 6.60 | (6.84) | 22.52 | |
| CSGS | CSG Systems International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.63 | (0.59) | 15.33 | |
| EVTC | Evertec | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.94 | (3.16) | 9.49 | |
| MQ | Marqeta | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.24 | (3.28) | 14.05 | |
| CXM | Sprinklr | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.65 | (3.99) | 10.05 | |
| PLUS | ePlus inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.22 | 0.09 | 3.71 | (2.17) | 19.34 | |
| BELFB | Bel Fuse B | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.75 | 0.12 | 4.38 | (4.41) | 12.33 | |
| FIVN | Five9 Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 4.42 | (6.18) | 13.99 |
Other Forecasting Options for NetScout Systems
For every potential investor in NetScout, whether a beginner or expert, NetScout Systems' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NetScout Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NetScout. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NetScout Systems' price trends.NetScout Systems Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NetScout Systems stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NetScout Systems could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NetScout Systems by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NetScout Systems Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NetScout Systems stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NetScout Systems shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NetScout Systems stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NetScout Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
NetScout Systems Risk Indicators
The analysis of NetScout Systems' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NetScout Systems' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting netscout stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.97 | |||
| Variance | 3.88 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.99 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.82 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.63) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for NetScout Systems
The number of cover stories for NetScout Systems depends on current market conditions and NetScout Systems' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that NetScout Systems is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about NetScout Systems' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
NetScout Systems Short Properties
NetScout Systems' future price predictability will typically decrease when NetScout Systems' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of NetScout Systems often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential NetScout Systems' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NetScout Systems' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 72.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 491.5 M |
Additional Tools for NetScout Stock Analysis
When running NetScout Systems' price analysis, check to measure NetScout Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NetScout Systems is operating at the current time. Most of NetScout Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NetScout Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NetScout Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NetScout Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.