Northern Technologies Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NTIC Stock | USD 13.57 0.42 3.00% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Northern Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 13.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.92. Northern Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Northern Technologies stock prices and determine the direction of Northern Technologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Northern Technologies' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
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Northern Technologies Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Northern Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 13.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.92.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Northern Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Northern Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Northern Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
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Northern Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Northern Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Northern Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.99 and 16.22, respectively. We have considered Northern Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Northern Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Northern Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.8793 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0124 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.261 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0204 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.9182 |
Predictive Modules for Northern Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northern Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Northern Technologies
For every potential investor in Northern, whether a beginner or expert, Northern Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Northern Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Northern. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Northern Technologies' price trends.Northern Technologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Northern Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Northern Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Northern Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Northern Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Northern Technologies' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Northern Technologies' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Northern Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Northern Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Northern Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Northern Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Northern Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Northern Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of Northern Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Northern Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting northern stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.21 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.42 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.7 | |||
| Variance | 7.26 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.41 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.83 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.39) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Northern Technologies offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Northern Technologies' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Northern Technologies Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Northern Technologies Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Northern Technologies to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Northern Stock refer to our How to Trade Northern Stock guide.You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Is Specialty Chemicals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northern Technologies. If investors know Northern will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Northern Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.09) | Earnings Share 0.55 | Revenue Per Share 8.752 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) | Return On Assets 0.0079 |
The market value of Northern Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Northern that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Northern Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Northern Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Northern Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Northern Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Northern Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Northern Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northern Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.