Northern Technologies Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| NTIC Stock | USD 8.92 0.10 1.11% |
Northern Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Northern Technologies stock prices and determine the direction of Northern Technologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Northern Technologies' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Northern Technologies' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.58) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.26 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.6 | Wall Street Target Price 13 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.05 |
Using Northern Technologies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Northern Technologies from the perspective of Northern Technologies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Northern Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 9.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.54. Northern Technologies after-hype prediction price | USD 9.05 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Northern Technologies to cross-verify your projections. Northern Technologies Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Northern price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Northern using various technical indicators. When you analyze Northern charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Northern Technologies Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Northern Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 9.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43, mean absolute percentage error of 0.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.54.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Northern Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Northern Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Northern Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Northern Technologies | Northern Technologies Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Northern Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Northern Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Northern Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.60 and 11.72, respectively. We have considered Northern Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Northern Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Northern Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.568 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.428 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0527 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.5383 |
Predictive Modules for Northern Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northern Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Northern Technologies After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Northern Technologies at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Northern Technologies or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Northern Technologies, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Northern Technologies Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Northern Technologies' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Northern Technologies' historical news coverage. Northern Technologies' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.49 and 11.61, respectively. We have considered Northern Technologies' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Northern Technologies is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Northern Technologies is based on 3 months time horizon.
Northern Technologies Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Northern Technologies is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Northern Technologies backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Northern Technologies, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 2.56 | 0.13 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
8.92 | 9.05 | 1.46 |
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Northern Technologies Hype Timeline
Northern Technologies is now traded for 8.92. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.13, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Northern is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 9.05 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 1.46%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Northern Technologies is about 4430.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.91. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 84.23 M. Net Income was 986.39 K with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 31.9 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Northern Technologies to cross-verify your projections.Northern Technologies Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Northern Technologies' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Northern Technologies' future price movements. Getting to know how Northern Technologies' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Northern Technologies may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LOOP | Loop Industries | 0.02 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 6.74 | (6.42) | 18.20 | |
| ALTO | Alto Ingredients | (0.01) | 8 per month | 3.29 | 0.28 | 13.41 | (6.27) | 32.45 | |
| TSE | Trinseo SA | (0.02) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 11.11 | (11.46) | 53.43 | |
| LGO | Largo Resources | 0.02 | 5 per month | 4.13 | 0.05 | 9.17 | (6.54) | 20.11 | |
| KBSX | FST Corp Ordinary | (0.01) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 2.72 | (4.03) | 12.61 | |
| ORGN | Origin Materials | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.30) | 6.82 | (8.70) | 22.98 | |
| AGRZ | Agroz Ordinary Shares | (0.38) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 22.75 | (28.96) | 70.40 | |
| PZG | Paramount Gold Nevada | 0.04 | 7 per month | 2.78 | 0.19 | 12.12 | (4.90) | 19.02 | |
| FSI | Flexible Solutions International | (0.17) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 3.44 | (4.86) | 14.68 |
Other Forecasting Options for Northern Technologies
For every potential investor in Northern, whether a beginner or expert, Northern Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Northern Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Northern. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Northern Technologies' price trends.Northern Technologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Northern Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Northern Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Northern Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Northern Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Northern Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Northern Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Northern Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Northern Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Northern Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of Northern Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Northern Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting northern stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.82 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.74 | |||
| Variance | 7.5 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.21 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.72 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.32) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Northern Technologies
The number of cover stories for Northern Technologies depends on current market conditions and Northern Technologies' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Northern Technologies is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Northern Technologies' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Northern Technologies Short Properties
Northern Technologies' future price predictability will typically decrease when Northern Technologies' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Northern Technologies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Northern Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Northern Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 9.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Northern Technologies to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Northern Stock refer to our How to Trade Northern Stock guide.You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
Will Specialty Chemicals sector continue expanding? Could Northern diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northern Technologies. Anticipated expansion of Northern directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Northern Technologies data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.58) | Dividend Share 0.1 | Earnings Share (0.03) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.092 |
Northern Technologies's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Northern's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Northern Technologies' intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Northern Technologies' trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Northern Technologies' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Northern Technologies should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Northern Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.